This is a review of not one but two books written by Tim Marshall. Tim was the diplomatic editor and foreign correspondent for Sky News for around 30 years. He has since left Sky to focus on writing and analysis especially around world and current affairs. Tim is extremely well travelled and has written from many conflict zones including the Balkans, Iran, Damascus, Cairo etc.
Having read both the books, I can say they make fascinating reading and provide an excellent understanding why certain nations are formed the way they are, what keeps them awake at night, why some are rich but others are poor and why some dominate but others struggle to achieve their footing in the world order. Its true that politics, people, leaders, institutions do matter but what also matters (and is often ignored) is geography and the contours of the land and what (and in some cases who) shaped the borders. I suggest buying both the books as they are linked and I have provided a reading 'map' which would be a good way to explore the various chapters across the two books.
I previously reviewed Daniel Yergin's excellent book - The New Maps which talks about the intersection of energy and geopolitics but it kept geography in the background. When you combine reading that book with these two books you will appreciate the triangulation of geopolitics, energy and geography.
A lot is covered across the two books, but the world as we know it is dominated by the Big Three; The US, Russia and China. Hence, we should start with the Big Three.
Russia
The largest country in the world that geographically straddles both Asia and Europe but has always been a Westward looking political power. The Urals mountain range divides the western and eastern parts of Russia as a neat vertical line. Looking west what Russia sees is the great flat North European plain. Reviewing European elevation maps clearly demonstrates why this is what keeps Russia awake at night. (https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/elevation-map-of-europe.) The North European plain is flat land with virtually no geographical obstacles. This can prove to be advantageous yet a military challenge when it comes to defence of the Russian homeland. Not surprisingly that flat plain has seen a lot of militaries move over the centuries including Napoleon and Hitler. Geography is what deals this hand to Russia!
The plain would partly explain the rationale for the creation of Warsaw Pact as a buffer zone but more importantly the current Russian paranoia when by 2004 (around 15 years from the fall of the Soviet Union), every other Warsaw Pact country was either a member of NATO or EU or both! This has blunted Russia's strategic depth and eliminated large paths of its buffer zone. The plain that borders Russia in the west is now dotted with NATO allies. It also explains why Russia will fight to keep Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia out of the EU and NATO at all costs. It cannot afford any further loss of the buffer state geography when it comes to this Northern European plain.
When Russia looks East, it sees a vast land empire but sparse population (only c. 20% of its 144mm population lives there) and a large continuous border with the rising power China. But as of now Russia is more worried about NATO and EU expansion on its western geography.
Russia has always been a mighty land power that believes in owning a large territory to provide it with 'strategic depth'. But could it also be a large naval power like the US? The answer is highly unlikely and the reason again being geography. Russia was dealt a bad hand in this regard as it does not have access to warm water ports.
Its Baltic fleet must pass through Denmark and other NATO nations first, then pass through the North Sea (British controlled) to reach the Atlantic. Its Arctic fleet must break through UK, Iceland and Greenland, all NATO countries, to reach the Atlantic. It does have a warm water port in Sevastopol located in Crimea in the Black Sea. But even there it must pass through the Bosphorus Straits controlled by Turkey (NATO) and then Aegean Sea controlled by Greece (NATO) and finally pass through the Straits of Gibraltar (Spain and UK - both NATO) located in the Mediterranean Sea to reach the Atlantic. Its Pacific Rim does not have warm water ports all year round.
Russia may view Afghanistan very strategically as a result. In my view (not the author's), Russia will once again try and play an outsized role in Afghanistan. It will use Afghanistan as a stepping stone and try build a new relationship with Pakistan to get access to a warm water port in the Arabian Sea. This seems to be the best game in town for the Russian navy to secure a long coveted asset.
China
China is the fourth largest country in the world and the world's most populous nation. However, geography has played a crucial role in its development and evolution. We can again start with the topographical map of China. https://depts.washington.edu/chinaciv/geo/land.htm
The heartland of China is the North China Plain. This part of China has access to two rivers (Yellow and Yangtze) and a climate that allows double cropping hence can support a large population. In terms of size, this plain is half the size of the US but hosts a billion people.
The Hu Line is an imaginary but important line that runs from Tengchong city near the Myanmar border to Heihe city up north near the Russian border. 1/3 of China's landmass lies to the east of this line but this is where more than 90% of China's population lives (Han majority). Which means 2/3 of China's landmass has around 10% of its population.
Topography explains a lot why this is the case. Up north is the Gobi desert, not suited for large population settlements. In the west there is the world's largest plateau in the world - the Tibetan plateau, again not suited to sustain large population densities. Finally, the northwest of China is very dry and arid and the South East is wet and receives abundant rainfall which further explains population concentration patterns. https://www.chinamaps.org/china/china-map-of-precipitation-annual.html
However, Tibet and Xinjiang, the two sparsely populated provinces in the west of China are geographically critical and act as buffer zones for the core mainland region. Whilst ethnically different to the Han Chinese, the two provinces encompass more than 25% of China's landmass. Control of Tibet is vital because Tibet overlooks the Chinese flat plain from a commanding height. Plus, Tibet is China's water tower and three of its key river systems originate in Tibet (Yellow, Yangtze and Mekong). China therefore focusses intensely on these two critical provinces and control over them is non negotiable.
The seas are increasingly vital for China. China has always been a land power but its recent growth model requires it to import energy and raw materials (China is energy deficient) and export finished goods to the world. Access to sea lanes is paramount and China is working hard to build a shore defence system and a blue water navy to secure the seas. Free access to surrounding seas and oceans is imperative for China but geography complicates the task.
As the Chinese look east to break out into the Pacific they need to go past Japan, South Korea, Taiwan or Philippines. All of them are US allies and the US navy has a strong presence across this chain leading to the Pacific. Diplomacy, economic and military might are being by China to secure more room for itself and edge the US out of here. But concrete once poured is hard to dislodge.
As the Chinese look south and then west to access the Indian ocean they see the critical choke point of the Straits of Malacca where Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia operate. Again these countries have defence ties with the US. Geography therefore dictates China to take a stronger, combative role in the South China sea to keep this lane open for itself and the US aims to ensure just the opposite. It is not mere coincidence where flash points are being triggered.
Given the challenges of securing the sea routes for China, the importance of the CPEC comes to the forefront for China as it can try to by pass the choke point of the Straits of Malacca and get access to the Indian ocean via the Gwadar port in Pakistan. This is however, expensive and challenging and dealing with an unstable region is not optimal for China.
USA
The USA could have secured a geographical lottery among the major super powers. The topographical map of the US is a good start and shows why. https://kids.britannica.com/students/assembly/view/166203
Flat plains dominate the country and whilst a flat plain is an issue for Russia, the US does not have the same security issues as it has the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for company and the nicest neighbour up north in Canada. Mexico to the south is also a very benign neighbour. This coupled with its landmass gives the US enough strategic depth and not worry about the homeland.
The east coast plains have fertile soil and are well served by short but useful rivers. Once the Appalachian mountains are crossed, we come to the immense great plains in the center. Further west does pose a bit of the problem with the Rockies, the desert and a narrow coastal plain leading to the Pacific but it is no where near the challenges other countries face. The country is also blessed with the great lakes in the North for water security and navigation.
Most vital is the Mississippi river system, the greatest inland water way system in the world. As per the book, the greater Mississippi has more miles of navigable river than the rest of the entire world put together. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_River#/media/File:Mississippiriver-new-01.png
It is staggering to see the immense benefits of the same as the river network stretches across the great plains. When rivers and plains meet, the soil is great and food is abundant which leads to strong population growth. Unlike China and Russia, demographics are also on the side of the US.
With two oceans bordering the US, the country is a two ocean power and a two ocean blue water Navy. The US has unchallenged access to the Pacific, Atlantic and Mediterranean. Via NATO, other strategic alliances and various military bases across the world, the US has access to nearly all the key waterways in the world.
Geography affords the US tremendous flexibility providing it with clean water, fertile soil, arable land, strategic depth, plentiful ocean access and immense natural resources.
The other chapters in the book cover Western Europe, Africa, the Middle East, India & Pakistan, Korea and Japan and Latin America. Reading these chapters will provide fantastic concepts around some of the advantages that geography provided and where geography became a hindrance to growth and development. Whilst the book does not take a fatalistic view that ultimately everything boils down to geography, the chapters will demonstrate why certain regions are well connected, developed and have growth potential and others remain coastal developments and are unable to develop as powerful nations.
Now we come to Tim's second book which is a sequel to the first and is titled The Power of Geography. The book has been recently published and is on the similar lines as the first. In this book Tim discusses regions that may be smaller in size but still fascinating and riveting to read. These regions include Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UK (especially in the post Brexit Context), Greece, Turkey, the Sahel, Ethiopia and Spain.
After having read both the books, the following reading 'map' would be the most optimal.
Part A. Start by reading Russia, China and the US. This is the core foundation and a must read as it sets the context for the world maps and power plays.
Part B. Read the chapter on the Middle East from book 1 and then read Iran and Saudi Arabia from book 2. I would follow that with the chapter on Turkey from book 2 as Turkey sits at an important geographical cross road across Central Asia, Middle East and Europe.
Part C. Having read Russia, read the chapter on Western Europe from book 1. Follow that with a reading of the UK and Spain (covers issues around Brexit, EU, separatist movements etc). That can be followed by the chapter on Greece and re-read Turkey as the two nations face of in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Part D. Read the chapter on China, then read Korea & Japan followed by India & Pakistan, all from book 1 and then read Australia from book 2. This will give an excellent view on the Indo Pacific, the most dynamic region in the world.
Part E. Start with Africa from book 1, refresh with the Middle East from book 1, then read Ethiopia and the Sahel from book2 in that order to get the perspective on Africa and its challenges.
Part F. Having read the chapter on the US from book 1, read the chapter on Latin America from book 1 to fully understand the differences in the Western Hemisphere.
If we think we have covered a lot of interesting geography, countries, maps and geopolitics (which we have indeed), we are wrong. Each of the two books has one fascinating last chapter. These are regions that are out of sight and out of mind but are going to become supremely important in the coming years.
Lets talk about the Arctic. The key Arctic powers are US, Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark. Of the lot, Russia has the most significant presence and considers the Arctic as a strategic region. Russia leads the world in terms of ice breakers including nuclear powered ones. The Arctic is also where the maps are changing because of the effects of climate change. As more ice melts, new trade and naval routes are opening up that are linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans more effectively. The Arctic is also an under explored area and is expected to be rich in natural resources. If thats the case, new maps and new power plays are definitely going to get sketched out over the next few years.
Space is aptly the last chapter and the final frontier in his second book. Space was thought to be featureless where traditional rules of Earth, the lines, divisions and geographies wont apply. But it is not the case and infact its ' a rich vista of gravitational mountains and valleys, oceans and rivers of resources and energy'. Given this newer understanding of space, the competition has definitely heated up. Western nations led by the US have signed the Artemis accord to collaborate and explore the moon and outer space. Naturally the Russians and Chinese are not far behind. Space is increasingly being militarised with the launch of satellites, GPS systems, missile shields, domes etc. The great scramble is on again! Like earth, we are likely to see winners and losers; those that control the prime gateways, key spots, stitch up alliances and force fractures or will we buck the trend and treat space and space exploration as a joint humanity project for the betterment of all?
The two books provide exceptional insights through amazing facts about our planet and how we have developed especially over the past few centuries. Reading these two books will enable us to appreciate a lot of 'why and how' nations act and react. Geography has played a crucial role in the development of humans and nations. With technology we have been able to bend the arc of geographical constraints but we still cannot eliminate it. Its too strong and powerful. If that is the case, it makes sense to read the two books so that instead of becoming a prisoner to geography one could capture the power of geography.
