To Rule the Waves - Bruce D. Jones

To Rule the Waves is a book written by Bruce D Jones, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. The book illuminates how the control of the world's oceans shapes the fates of the superpowers. Bruce directs the Project on International Order and Strategy of the Foreign Policy Program at Brookings and is therefore optimally placed to write about maritime strategies, world order and the power of nations. The book has been published by Simon & Schuster, Inc in 2021 and hence provides a very updated insight into some of the most critical issues such as the South China Sea militarisation which directly affects us living in Asia. 

The book has four parts that are closely linked with each other. It commences by giving readers a glimpse into the vastness of the sea borne trade and the importance of oceans to the power & wealth of nations and ends with challenges including that of climate change and demonstrating the importance of oceans vis-a-vis the climate discussion. 

The oceans are not just an empty bottomless abyss but a thriving ecosystem where control of strategic locations is as vital and in many cases more vital than strategic locations on land. Since 1492 and 1498 when Columbus discovered the New World and Vasco de Gamma discovered the sea route via the Cape of Good Hope to India; the world changed and the control of oceans became paramount for wealth and power [my views]. 

The rise of sea or maritime power has been on a continuos ascendency. The book shares insights into how this phenomenon evolved, first with the Portuguese who were closely followed by the Spanish and then by the Dutch, French and finally the British. By the turn of the 20th century, the British had become the pre-dominant power in the world on the back of the Royal Navy which operated a blue water navy across the entire world. After WW2, the Americans would follow suit in the tradition of the Royal Navy and develop the finest Navy the world has ever seen. 

The book shares important but critical insights especially into the workings of the United States which is the preeminent power in the world. Unlike the common perception of national borders being the first line of defence of a country, national borders are infact the last line of defence for the United States. Lets introduce here Alfred Thayer Mahan - the brilliant naval strategist of the US and author of a pivotal book "Influence of Sea Power Upon History" written in the late 1800s which has shaped much of the doctrine of the United States' navy and a book that offers a deep insight into the workings of a blue water navy.  

Mahan's critical concept being the wealth and prosperity of a nation is linked to (a) a strong and powerful merchant fleet to carry goods & merchandise across the world (b) an unmatched navy to protect the merchant fleet and keep the sea lanes open for trade and commerce (c) forward projection of power, far away from the country's national borders, via a series of mutually reinforcing forward bases. For the best example of the last point, the reader is advised to open a map of the Pacific ocean and plot the US bases from San Diego all the way to South Korea and the concept becomes all too apparent. 

Containerisation & Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEU). The development of the container shipping phenomenon and the growth of sea borne trade has been in lock step. Since the commencement of the container industry in the 1960s this industry has grown by leaps and bounds and has transformed the way we consume goods. The graph below (World Bank) shows the incredible rise of container shipping as measured in TEU units over the past few decades coinciding with the rise of China and the Western Pacific.

Growth in world containerisation measured in TEU 

East Asian economies now dominate the sea borne trade with massive manufacturing hubs dotting the Western Pacific. The largest ports used to American ports and some western European ports in 1960s. Now all the largest ports in the world unsurprisingly are in East Asia with Shanghai ranked 1 and Singapore following close behind demonstrating how the axis has shifted to the Pacific.  https://www.worldshipping.org/top-50-ports 

Shanghai and the other Chinese ports are truly breathtaking in size and complexity. The author talks about his visit to Yangshan Port in Shanghai and shares valuable insights into the development of this super critical world trade port. I was fortunate to have visited Port Waigaoqiao in Shanghai in 2010 and below are some pictures from that visit which I have taken the liberty to share. 

Copper Cathodes Stored in Shanghai Port Free Trade Zone

Chinese port workers weighing the copper

Thats me in front of a large pile of Copper in the port

China, Singapore and South Korea now have the most integrated shipping networks in the world and their companies dominate sea borne commerce and trade. The Chapters - To Contain the World share deep insights including the rise of some iconic shipping companies like Maersk and OOCL which played a critical role in the development of container shipping industry which in turn changed the world we live in. As the industry has grown and developed, so have the ships that carry this massive volume of trade. The early container ships in the 60s had a capacity ranging between 1,000 - 3,000 TEUs. Today the largest container ship has a size of c. 24,000 TEU, not surprisingly owned by the Taiwanese shipping line Evergreen. 

The Flag Follows the Trade - The US navy, as mentioned above, enjoys unmatched supremacy and controls the world's seas and oceans. Through a combination of large military budgets, cutting edge technologies, mutually reinforcing forward bases and a world wide alliance with other leading nations of the world, the US has secured a pivotal role in controlling the seas and ensuring freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade. 

Enter China!! Since the early 2000s, on the back of incredible economic growth, China has come a new power to challenge the presence of the US. China has embarked on a spree to upgrade and modernise its armed forces and notably its navy. Export of finished goods is critical to China as is the import of raw materials and energy and this is a key vulnerability for the country as all this takes place via sea lanes. China recognised that in a clash with the US it would suffer immeasurably as the US navy controls the water all around China. The US could literally 'choke' China if matters came to a head. 

This prompted China to upgrade its naval capabilities and it started to gain knowledge and confidence first with anti piracy operations far from its own territorial waters. Since then, the rise of the PLAN has put the world in general and the US in particular on notice. This section of the book will chronicle key strategies adopted by the Chinese and US in the control of the sea lanes around China and the Western Pacific. Bruce has shared some very interesting insights and perspectives which make for fascinating reading.   

The Power of the Seas - We maybe lulled into believing that as we continue to make progress it will be the world of high tech that will dominate societies and will be more critical than the transshipment of goods on the high seas. Even if we did subscribe to this notion (which is rather flawed) we cannot forget that more than 90% of the data in the world in carried via undersea cables! The seas and oceans are now even more vital in the data driven, cyber economy and hence protecting this vital infrastructure is paramount. 

The seas and oceans are also an incredible source of sustenance as well. A large percentage of the world's population relies on fish and sea food as a critical source for its dietary needs. Then there are the mineral riches from the seas from oil to natural gas production. All this makes for even heightened control & competition for the seas and oceans. [for more deeper insights into the development of the offshore oil industry my suggestion would be to read the book The Prize by Daniel Yergin]. 

One also cannot ignore the role of water, seas and oceans when it comes to our climate. Through sustained research initially carried out by the UK and US but now by most leading nations of the world, we have come to understand the importance of the oceans in the area of climate. Oceans, currents, temperature differences, ice caps, the inter play between oceans and winds all play a vital role in our evolving climate systems. Further, the incredible ability of the oceans to absorb heat has led to further research around oceans, climate change and global warming. 

"Once oceans were the boundary of our existence; now they are the front lines of the new rivalries that will shape the twenty - first century". This sentence aptly summarises the essence of this excellent book. Will the oceans and the Pacific in particular become a hostile and hotly contested fault line or will seas and oceans continue to further trade, innovation and connections is a question for all of us to debate. Finally, we know so little about the oceans despite they being front and center of our existence. Hence, is it time for the major powers to bury their differences and instead work on transnational issues and better understand and respect the seas and oceans around us? To get some of these answers and better shape your opinions, do buy and read this book!

https://www.amazon.com/Rule-Waves-Control-Determines-Superpowers/dp/1982127252

    

The Pacific Ocean - Some Interesting Facts

The Pacific Ocean is this vast body of water and understanding it is vital to understanding the Earth. Besides understanding it from a scientific perspective, the Pacific Rim is now the most vibrant and dynamic part of the world, dotted with the largest economies, high technology hubs and powerful armies and navies. The note below shares some important facts and features of the Pacific ocean and I have included links to a few YouTube videos to provide additional information or context. Happy reading and learning!

Size - The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of all the ocean bodies on the Earth. At 165m sq Km it is larger than all the land masses on Earth put together. It's widest section from Indonesia to Colombia spans around 19,800 km and the Pacific ocean amounts to 28% of the Earth's surface. The Pacific contains around half the Earth's entire water which is not surprising given its large area. Islands dot the entire Pacific and there are more than 20,000 of these islands in the ocean, each unique geographies and cultures. The Pacific ocean is also shrinking in size at the rate of around 0.5sq km per annum with a corresponding increasing offset of the Atlantic ocean due to phenomena called plate tectonics and subduction. 

Discovery - Whist indigenous people have been living across the various Pacific islands for thousands of years, the modern discovery of the Pacific is attributed to the Portuguese explorer - Vasco Nunez de Balboa in 1513 when he crossed the Isthmus of Panama and sighted the Pacific. Ferdinand Magellan first recorded the crossing of the Pacific in 1521 and also gave it the name that stands till today 'The Pacific Ocean" - the peaceful sea. Since then, the European powers greatly expanded their ambit of presence & conquest in the Pacific including the Spanish, Dutch, French, German & English and established various colonial outposts across the Pacific and in latter years were matched by the Americans. The Americans now have many military bases dotted across the Pacific and control of the Pacific is vital for the American navy. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uE4pWxMbmg] 

Weather & Climate - Oceans in general and the Pacific in particular have immense heat storing capabilities. Oceans also provide for the intersections of warm and cold water and the Pacific is infamous of key weather related events like El Nino and La Nina because of the vast and critical interchange between the oceans and atmosphere. The great size of the Pacific and especially given large parts of the ocean lie between the Tropics make it the largest area covered by the Trade Winds and hence a key driver of global climate and weather patterns. The eastern boundary of the Pacific experiences storms called Hurricanes which are called Typhoons in the Western Pacific. The Pacific is also a region of high rainfall. 

Deepest Trench - The Challenger Deep, part of the Marianas Trench is the deepest known point on the Earth. Crescent shaped, the trench is around 11 Km deep. The trench is located close to the Island of Guam. The trench is deeper than Mt. Everest and the pressure at the bottom is more than 1,000 bar. More people have walked on the moon than on the Marianas Trench and thus remains a highly un-explored region. Despite the high pressure and completely absence of sunlight, complex life forms exist even in the deepest parts of the ocean which has resulted in new scientific discoveries around the origin of life on the planet  [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VRnNHSqNKo] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0G68ORc8uQ] 

Tallest Mountain - Mauna Kea one of the six volcanic mountains that have formed the island of Hawaii is the world's tallest mountain at 9,966m in height. However, as a large part of Mauna Kea lies below the sea level, Mount Everest remains the tallest peak measured from mean sea level.  

Garbage - There is a significant amount of debris and garbage in Pacific ocean caused by indiscriminate dumping by humans. There are infact two established garbage patches, the Western garbage patch located near Japan and the Eastern garbage patch near Hawaii. Garbage accumulates in these regions largely because of the specific nature of the Pacific ocean currents. The garbage is mostly plastic as it does not bio degrade and a large component of this is micro plastic. The garbage resides not only at the surface but will sink into the lower portions of the ocean as well. The accumulation of garbage in the Pacific has now become a gigantic problem and since the patches are located in regions far from any country, the chances of a clean up are remote unfortunately. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtaNqGyHkNE] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsjvwQclGLo]

Ring of Fire - The Pacific Plate and plate tectonics are at the heart of the ring of fire. The ring of fire is located all around the edges of the Pacific Ocean and is the home of volcanic activity and earthquakes. More than 80% of the world's volcanoes and devastating earthquakes (c. 90%) happen around the Pacific fault lines dotted by the ring of fire. One of the reasons is the faster movement of the Pacific plate (the largest tectonic plate) relative to other tectonic plates in the region. Processes including subduction play a critical role that results in frequent instability and earthquakes. The largest and most deadly volcanic eruption that took place in recorded history was Krakatoa (other was Tambora also in Indonesia) in Indonesia in 1883. Explosions were heard nearly 4,000 miles away and ash and projectile was propelled to a distance of 80 km upwards. Tsunami waves crossed a 100ft and more than 30,000 people died as a result of this explosion. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8q1Ur3Z6dT0]

Pacific Rim - Islands in the Pacific and nations that border the Pacific ocean are today the most vibrant and dominant part of the global economy. Billions live in and around the coastal regions of the Pacific including the West Coast of N America, Japan, Korea, China and Indonesia. Dominant economies dot the edges of the Pacific making this the most dynamic region in the world connected by the vast expanse of the Pacific ocean. The Pacific rim is the world's leading technology hub. 

Great Barrier Reef (GBF) - The GBF located off the eastern coast of Australia is one of the seven wonder of the natural world, is larger than the Great Wall of China and is the only living creature that is visible from outer space. Stretching 2,300km, it is the largest coral reef foundation in the world. Climate Change is making very visible impacts on the GBF with coral bleaching being one of them. 

Point Nemo - The remotest point on Earth, Point Nemo, is an imaginary location in the Pacific Ocean. It lies about 2,700 km from the nearest land body. When boats pass close to Point Nemo they are closer to the International Space Station than to any land body on Earth. Point Nemo has also become a dumping ground for decommissioned satellites, space stations etc given its remoteness. The only humans who get close to the imaginary Point Nemo are those that take place in the Volvo ocean race.     

Hawaii & Pearl Harbour - Dec 7, 1941 is forever etched in the history of the Pacific especially the United States and Japan. The day after the attack, FDR and Congress declared war on Japan and formally entered WW2 and decisively changed the outcome of the great war. The surprise attack by Japan disabled the US Pacific fleet with a number of ships and destroyers damaged. Miraculously the air craft carriers of the US escaped this attack by the Japanese and they would play a critical role in future engagements with the Japanese. More than 2,000 US servicemen died in the Pearl Harbour attack which FDR declared "a day that will live in infamy".  The Pacific thereafter saw significant naval and military engagements between Japan and the Allied forces (principally the US) including the infamous island hopping campaign and notable sea battles like Coral Sea and Midway. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvInlqvE8IU] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kipF5zoCGAk] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB5hH3ksvKE]  

Atomic Age - The Pacific rim has seen two of the most devastating bombs in the history which detonated at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan in 1945. These two atomic weapons killed thousands and hastened the unconditional surrender of Japan and brought an end to WW2. Since then, the US, UK and France have tested a number of atomic weapons across the Pacific given the remoteness and vastness of the ocean. The Pacific therefore is the first and only atomic ocean. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFUVN0pJayY] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fq3WRPr2qQ] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCtxSlH0DK0] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1up-TRMxdo]

Galapagos - The Galapagos are islands in the Pacific that are distributed on both sides of the equator and form part of Ecuador. The Galapagos are inextricably linked to Charles Darwin and his theory of natural selection. It was his five week visit in 1835 to these Pacific islands that led Darwin to observe that species whilst similar from island to island were perfectly suited and adapted for the environment they lived in. His theories considerably advanced work and thought leadership around natural selection, evolution and origin of species. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOiUZ3ycZwU]

Pacific by Simon Winchester

Pacific : Silicon Chips & Surfboards, Coral Reefs and Atom Bombs, Brutal Dictators and Fading Empires by Simon Winchester as the name suggests is a book about the Pacific Ocean. Simon is a prolific writer and has written numerous books on diverse subjects including leading personalities, events, the Earth and the world around us. I had bought a book written by Simon last year and was not impressed by it; the book is titled Land. I would not recommend that book titled 'Land'. I chanced upon this book - Pacific whilst browsing the National Library in Singapore for some interesting reads. The index looked appealing and hence I borrowed the same to further my curiosity and evaluate how this book would be.

The book is well written and is rather innovative. Simon looks at the Pacific from many dimensions and not just as a body of water. The Pacific is now the most interesting and dynamic region of the world and has supplanted the Atlantic in terms of importance, size and preeminence. The Pacific is home to the world's largest economies, most powerful navies, cutting edge high tech hubs, hot beds for scientific research especially around climate change & oceanography and is surrounded by more than two billion people along its eastern and western coastlines. Most critically, the Pacific is where the new fault lines are emerging replacing Germany which was the fault line during the cold war with the Russians in the 20th century. 

The book has numerous chapters covering a multitude of issues. In this review, I shall cover top four chapters that I felt were unique to the Pacific ocean and the Pacific rim and extremely interesting. A review of these four chapters should generate enough interest for the reader to read the entire book in detail. 

The interesting aspect about the book is the way it has been written. To elaborate further, let me cite one example. A key feature of the Pacific rim is the presence of dominant economies on both the Eastern and Western Pacific with incredible volume and value of trade, commerce and investment flowing back and forth. Simon charter's this growth and development by sharing insights about Sony Corporation's rise after WW2 as a specific case in point and then balances this out with a more expansive view on trade and development of industry & manufacturing across the Pacific rim countries. This is a common theme that will run across many chapters and that's what makes this book different and interesting. 

Mr. Ibuka's Radio Revolution - the first part of this chapter is dedicated to the rise of Sony Corporation, a company founded by two engineers Masaru Ibuka and Akio Morita, who is the more well known personality of the two. Sony was born from the aftermath of WW2 as the nation began its incredible rise from the ashes (literally) and at a time when 20% of Tokyo suffered from tuberculosis and there was no semblance of any law and order or infrastructure. 

Sony exemplifies the West Pacific rim manufacturing story centred around precision, miniaturisation, high quality, scale, perfection and innovation especially in the field of consumer electronics. The chapter begins with the foundations of Sony Corp, its foray into transistor radios and building from there into a range of consumer devices that marry the machine to the artist, by amusing and entertaining the individual and playing on emotions and sentiments. Times have changed and since 2014 Japan has become a net importer of consumer electronics; an industry it spawned and dominated. Whilst Japan may have faded, its place was taken up by other Pacific Rim regions like South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and then of course China. The current axis is firmly anchored across China and the US which marks a seismic shift for the US and in turn generates a lot of challenges. With Japan, the US relationship was with a country that was an enemy but became a friend; with China on the other hand, it is a country that was an ally but now turning into an adversary. 

Of Masters & Commanders - Oct 26, 2006 - year zero when Chinese naval ambitions perceptibly changed. As you may have guessed this chapter is about US and Chinese naval supremacy for the waters of the Pacific, the US forward projection of power and the Chinese attempts to deter the US and create a wide buffer zone for its own navy. Whilst 2006 was the year when a Chinese submarine tailed and came within striking distance of the USS Kitty Hawk, an American aircraft carrier, this chapter starts with events much earlier. It commences in 1991 with the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo that rendered useless the two critical US bases in the South China Sea / Pacific - Subic and Clarke (in the Philippines) thus considerably weakening America's power in that part of the world. The chapter elaborates on the militarisation of the South China Sea,  The First Island Chain defence for China, The American pivot to the Pacific, Anti Access / Area Denial concept, Air Sea Battle counter, Admiral Liu Huaqing [https://cimsec.org/father-modern-chinese-navy-liu-huaqing/], Andrew Marshall [https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/05/andrew-marshall-brain-pentagon-passed-away/588952/] and steps & counter steps taken by China and America in what is now a clear escalating arms and naval race.  

Echoes of a Distant Thunder - Cyclone Tracy that hit Darwin in the 70s and Haiyan the super Typhoon that hit Philippines in 2013 are just two of the many devastating weather events that impact the Pacific rim. The Pacific is where the storms with the greatest intensities tend to get generated and their frequency is significantly greater than say the Atlantic ocean. The vastness of the Pacific ocean, coupled with a large part of the Pacific water body located between the two Tropics means it becomes a significant reservoir of heat, energy and hence weather patterns. The Pacific is also home to the most important weather phenomenon namely ENSO El Nino and the Southern Oscillation. The ENSO is now considered to be the most critical and important weather pattern and disruption event that occurs in the Pacific Ocean but impacts global weather patterns. 

Fires in the Deep - February 1977, one of the greatest maritime discoveries of all time happened in the Pacific. It was the discovery of deep ocean hydro thermal vents that changed many views about the origins of life and of incredible minerals and wealth at the bottom of the oceans. Life forms discovered around the hydrothermal vents defied the existing reasoning demonstrating that active life forms existed at unheard of depths, where the pressure is significant, there is complete absence of sunlight, warmth and no known established nutrients. A seminal paper was written in Science on this phenomenon [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226614578_The_Prokaryotes] due to the deep under sea / ocean work carried out in the Pacific. 

In addition, work carried in the deep oceans like the Pacific confirmed the existence of underwater mountains, ridges, valleys, eruptions and plate tectonic theories. The unique tectonic architecture of the Pacific plate (which is the largest tectonic plate on Earth) and its jostling with other plates creates the unique but deadly Ring of Fire around the Pacific rim. This deadly Ring of Fire encapsulates more than 400 active volcanoes and deadly earth quakes caused by the movement of the Pacific plate against the other plates in the region. 

Besides these four chapters there are many other chapters that share wonderful insights and secrets around the Pacific ocean including a chapter on the Korean war, garbage floating in the Pacific, the fragile ecosystem of the Pacific including the world of corals. growth of Hong Kong and the handover of Hong Kong from the UK to the Chinese and atomic testing programs in the Pacific. 

There is a wealth of knowledge to be obtained by reading many of the chapters in this book. The power of the Pacific, what lies beneath it and around its rim makes for fascinating reading. This is a book that should be read by anyone interested in science, climate, and the geopolitics around the most dynamic region in the world - the Pacific.  

https://www.amazon.com/Pacific-Silicon-Surfboards-Dictators-Empires/dp/0062315420

Prisoners & Power of Geography by Tim Marshall

This is a review of not one but two books written by Tim Marshall. Tim was the diplomatic editor and foreign correspondent for Sky News for around 30 years. He has since left Sky to focus on writing and analysis especially around world and current affairs. Tim is extremely well travelled and has written from many conflict zones including the Balkans, Iran, Damascus, Cairo etc. 

Having read both the books, I can say they make fascinating reading and provide an excellent understanding why certain nations are formed the way they are, what keeps them awake at night, why some are rich but others are poor and why some dominate but others struggle to achieve their footing in the world order. Its true that politics, people, leaders, institutions do matter but what also matters (and is often ignored) is geography and the contours of the land and what (and in some cases who) shaped the borders. I suggest buying both the books as they are linked and I have provided a reading 'map' which would be a good way to explore the various chapters across the two books. 

I previously reviewed Daniel Yergin's excellent book - The New Maps which talks about the intersection of energy and geopolitics but it kept geography in the background. When you combine reading that book with these two books you will appreciate the triangulation of geopolitics, energy and geography.   

A lot is covered across the two books, but the world as we know it is dominated by the Big Three; The US, Russia and China. Hence, we should start with the Big Three.

Russia 

The largest country in the world that geographically straddles both Asia and Europe but has always been a Westward looking political power. The Urals mountain range divides the western and eastern parts of Russia as a neat vertical line. Looking west what Russia sees is the great flat North European plain. Reviewing European elevation maps clearly demonstrates why this is what keeps Russia awake at night. (https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/elevation-map-of-europe.) The North European plain is flat land with virtually no geographical obstacles. This can prove to be advantageous yet a military challenge when it comes to defence of the Russian homeland. Not surprisingly that flat plain has seen a lot of militaries move over the centuries including Napoleon and Hitler. Geography is what deals this hand to Russia! 

The plain would partly explain the rationale for the creation of Warsaw Pact as a buffer zone but more importantly the current Russian paranoia when by 2004 (around 15 years from the fall of the Soviet Union), every other Warsaw Pact country was either a member of NATO or EU or both! This has blunted Russia's strategic depth and eliminated large paths of its buffer zone. The plain that borders Russia in the west is now dotted with NATO allies. It also explains why Russia will fight to keep Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia out of the EU and NATO at all costs. It cannot afford any further loss of the buffer state geography when it comes to this Northern European plain.   

When Russia looks East, it sees a vast land empire but sparse population (only c. 20% of its 144mm population lives there) and a large continuous border with the rising power China. But as of now Russia is more worried about NATO and EU expansion on its western geography.

Russia has always been a mighty land power that believes in owning a large territory to provide it with 'strategic depth'. But could it also be a large naval power like the US? The answer is highly unlikely and the reason again being geography. Russia was dealt a bad hand in this regard as it does not have access to warm water ports. 

Its Baltic fleet must pass through Denmark and other NATO nations first, then pass through the North Sea (British controlled) to reach the Atlantic. Its Arctic fleet must break through UK, Iceland and Greenland, all NATO countries, to reach the Atlantic. It does have a warm water port in Sevastopol located in Crimea in the Black Sea. But even there it must pass through the Bosphorus Straits controlled by Turkey (NATO) and then Aegean Sea controlled by Greece (NATO) and finally pass through the Straits of Gibraltar  (Spain and UK - both NATO) located in the Mediterranean Sea to reach the Atlantic. Its Pacific Rim does not have warm water ports all year round. 

Russia may view Afghanistan very strategically as a result. In my view (not the author's), Russia will once again try and play an outsized role in Afghanistan. It will use Afghanistan as a stepping stone and try build a new relationship with Pakistan to get access to a warm water port in the Arabian Sea. This seems to be the best game in town for the Russian navy to secure a long coveted asset.  

China 

China is the fourth largest country in the world and the world's most populous nation. However, geography has played a crucial role in its development and evolution. We can again start with the topographical map of China. https://depts.washington.edu/chinaciv/geo/land.htm 

The heartland of China is the North China Plain. This part of China has access to two rivers (Yellow and Yangtze) and a climate that allows double cropping hence can support a large population. In terms of size, this plain is half the size of the US but hosts a billion people. 

The Hu Line is an imaginary but important line that runs from Tengchong city near the Myanmar border to Heihe city up north near the Russian border. 1/3 of China's landmass lies to the east of this line but this is where more than 90% of China's population lives (Han majority). Which means 2/3 of China's landmass has around 10% of its population. 

Topography explains a lot why this is the case. Up north is the Gobi desert, not suited for large population settlements. In the west there is the world's largest plateau in the world - the Tibetan plateau, again not suited to sustain large population densities. Finally, the northwest of China is very dry and arid and the South East is wet and receives abundant rainfall which further explains population concentration patterns.  https://www.chinamaps.org/china/china-map-of-precipitation-annual.html 

However, Tibet and Xinjiang, the two sparsely populated provinces in the west of China are geographically critical and act as buffer zones for the core mainland region. Whilst ethnically different to the Han Chinese, the two provinces encompass more than 25% of China's landmass. Control of Tibet is vital because Tibet overlooks the Chinese flat plain from a commanding height. Plus, Tibet is China's water tower and three of its key river systems originate in Tibet (Yellow, Yangtze and Mekong). China therefore focusses intensely on these two critical provinces and control over them is non negotiable.

The seas are increasingly vital for China. China has always been a land power but its recent growth model requires it to import energy and raw materials (China is energy deficient) and export finished goods to the world. Access to sea lanes is paramount and China is working hard to build a shore defence system and a blue water navy to secure the seas. Free access to surrounding seas and oceans is imperative for China but geography complicates the task. 

As the Chinese look east to break out into the Pacific they need to go past Japan, South Korea, Taiwan or Philippines. All of them are US allies and the US navy has a strong presence across this chain leading to the Pacific. Diplomacy, economic and military might are being by China to secure more room for itself and edge the US out of here. But concrete once poured is hard to dislodge. 

As the Chinese look south and then west to access the Indian ocean they see the critical choke point of the Straits of Malacca where Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia operate. Again these countries have defence ties with the US. Geography therefore dictates China to take a stronger, combative role in the South China sea to keep this lane open for itself and the US aims to ensure just the opposite. It is not mere coincidence where flash points are being triggered. 

Given the challenges of securing the sea routes for China, the importance of the CPEC comes to the forefront for China as it can try to by pass the choke point of the Straits of Malacca and get access to the Indian ocean via the Gwadar port in Pakistan. This is however, expensive and challenging and dealing with an unstable region is not optimal for China. 

USA

The USA could have secured a geographical lottery among the major super powers. The topographical map of the US is a good start and shows why.  https://kids.britannica.com/students/assembly/view/166203

Flat plains dominate the country and whilst a flat plain is an issue for Russia, the US does not have the same security issues as it has the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for company and the nicest neighbour up north in Canada. Mexico to the south is also a very benign neighbour. This coupled with its landmass gives the US enough strategic depth and not worry about the homeland.  

The east coast plains have fertile soil and are well served by short but useful rivers. Once the Appalachian mountains are crossed, we come to the immense great plains in the center. Further west does pose a bit of the problem with the Rockies, the desert and a narrow coastal plain leading to the Pacific but it is no where near the challenges other countries face. The country is also blessed with the great lakes in the North for water security and navigation.  

Most vital is the Mississippi river system, the greatest inland water way system in the world. As per the book, the greater Mississippi has more miles of navigable river than the rest of the entire world put together. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_River#/media/File:Mississippiriver-new-01.png 

It is staggering to see the immense benefits of the same as the river network stretches across the great plains. When rivers and plains meet, the soil is great and food is abundant which leads to strong population growth. Unlike China and Russia, demographics are also on the side of the US. 

With two oceans bordering the US, the country is a two ocean power and a two ocean blue water Navy. The US has unchallenged access to the Pacific, Atlantic and Mediterranean. Via NATO, other strategic alliances and various military bases across the world, the US has access to nearly all the key waterways in the world. 

Geography affords the US tremendous flexibility providing it with clean water, fertile soil, arable land, strategic depth, plentiful ocean access and immense natural resources. 

The other chapters in the book cover Western Europe, Africa, the Middle East, India & Pakistan, Korea and Japan and Latin America. Reading these chapters will provide fantastic concepts around some of the advantages that geography provided and where geography became a hindrance to growth and development. Whilst the book does not take a fatalistic view that ultimately everything boils down to geography, the chapters will demonstrate why certain regions are well connected, developed and have growth potential and others remain coastal developments and are unable to develop as powerful nations. 

Now we come to Tim's second book which is a sequel to the first and is titled The Power of Geography. The book has been recently published and is on the similar lines as the first. In this book Tim discusses regions that may be smaller in size but still fascinating and riveting to read. These regions include Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UK (especially in the post Brexit Context), Greece, Turkey, the Sahel, Ethiopia and Spain. 

After having read both the books, the following reading 'map' would be the most optimal. 

Part A. Start by reading Russia, China and the US. This is the core foundation and a must read as it sets the context for the world maps and power plays. 

Part B.  Read the chapter on the Middle East from book 1 and then read Iran and Saudi Arabia from book 2. I would follow that with the chapter on Turkey from book 2 as Turkey sits at an important geographical cross road across Central Asia, Middle East and Europe. 

Part C. Having read Russia, read the chapter on Western Europe from book 1. Follow that with a reading of the UK and Spain (covers issues around Brexit, EU, separatist movements etc). That can be followed by the chapter on Greece and re-read Turkey as the two nations face of in the Eastern Mediterranean.  

Part D. Read the chapter on China, then read Korea & Japan followed by India & Pakistan, all from book 1 and then read Australia from book 2. This will give an excellent view on the Indo Pacific, the most dynamic region in the world.  

Part E. Start with Africa from book 1, refresh with the Middle East from book 1, then read Ethiopia and the Sahel from book2 in that order to get the perspective on Africa and its challenges. 

Part F. Having read the chapter on the US from book 1, read the chapter on Latin America from book 1 to fully understand the differences in the Western Hemisphere. 

If we think we have covered a lot of interesting geography, countries, maps and geopolitics (which we have indeed), we are wrong. Each of the two books has one fascinating last chapter. These are regions that are out of sight and out of mind but are going to become supremely important in the coming years. 

Lets talk about the Arctic. The key Arctic powers are US, Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark. Of the lot, Russia has the most significant presence and considers the Arctic as a strategic region. Russia leads the world in terms of ice breakers including nuclear powered ones. The Arctic is also where the maps are changing because of the effects of climate change. As more ice melts, new trade and naval routes are opening up that are linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans more effectively. The Arctic is also an under explored area and is expected to be rich in natural resources. If thats the case, new maps and new power plays are definitely going to get sketched out over the next few years.     

Space is aptly the last chapter and the final frontier in his second book. Space was thought to be featureless where traditional rules of Earth, the lines, divisions and geographies wont apply. But it is not the case and infact its ' a rich vista of gravitational mountains and valleys, oceans and rivers of resources and energy'. Given this newer understanding of space, the competition has definitely heated up. Western nations led by the US have signed the Artemis accord to collaborate and  explore the moon and outer space. Naturally the Russians and Chinese are not far behind. Space is increasingly being militarised with the launch of satellites, GPS systems, missile shields, domes etc. The great scramble is on again! Like earth, we are likely to see winners and losers; those that control the prime gateways, key spots, stitch up alliances and force fractures or will we buck the trend and treat space and space exploration as a joint humanity project for the betterment of all? 

The two books provide exceptional insights through amazing facts about our planet and how we have developed especially over the past few centuries. Reading these two books will enable us to appreciate a lot of 'why and how' nations act and react. Geography has played a crucial role in the development of humans and nations. With technology we have been able to bend the arc of geographical constraints but we still cannot eliminate it. Its too strong and powerful. If that is the case, it makes sense to read the two books so that instead of becoming a prisoner to geography one could capture the power of geography.