To Rule the Waves - Bruce D. Jones

To Rule the Waves is a book written by Bruce D Jones, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. The book illuminates how the control of the world's oceans shapes the fates of the superpowers. Bruce directs the Project on International Order and Strategy of the Foreign Policy Program at Brookings and is therefore optimally placed to write about maritime strategies, world order and the power of nations. The book has been published by Simon & Schuster, Inc in 2021 and hence provides a very updated insight into some of the most critical issues such as the South China Sea militarisation which directly affects us living in Asia. 

The book has four parts that are closely linked with each other. It commences by giving readers a glimpse into the vastness of the sea borne trade and the importance of oceans to the power & wealth of nations and ends with challenges including that of climate change and demonstrating the importance of oceans vis-a-vis the climate discussion. 

The oceans are not just an empty bottomless abyss but a thriving ecosystem where control of strategic locations is as vital and in many cases more vital than strategic locations on land. Since 1492 and 1498 when Columbus discovered the New World and Vasco de Gamma discovered the sea route via the Cape of Good Hope to India; the world changed and the control of oceans became paramount for wealth and power [my views]. 

The rise of sea or maritime power has been on a continuos ascendency. The book shares insights into how this phenomenon evolved, first with the Portuguese who were closely followed by the Spanish and then by the Dutch, French and finally the British. By the turn of the 20th century, the British had become the pre-dominant power in the world on the back of the Royal Navy which operated a blue water navy across the entire world. After WW2, the Americans would follow suit in the tradition of the Royal Navy and develop the finest Navy the world has ever seen. 

The book shares important but critical insights especially into the workings of the United States which is the preeminent power in the world. Unlike the common perception of national borders being the first line of defence of a country, national borders are infact the last line of defence for the United States. Lets introduce here Alfred Thayer Mahan - the brilliant naval strategist of the US and author of a pivotal book "Influence of Sea Power Upon History" written in the late 1800s which has shaped much of the doctrine of the United States' navy and a book that offers a deep insight into the workings of a blue water navy.  

Mahan's critical concept being the wealth and prosperity of a nation is linked to (a) a strong and powerful merchant fleet to carry goods & merchandise across the world (b) an unmatched navy to protect the merchant fleet and keep the sea lanes open for trade and commerce (c) forward projection of power, far away from the country's national borders, via a series of mutually reinforcing forward bases. For the best example of the last point, the reader is advised to open a map of the Pacific ocean and plot the US bases from San Diego all the way to South Korea and the concept becomes all too apparent. 

Containerisation & Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEU). The development of the container shipping phenomenon and the growth of sea borne trade has been in lock step. Since the commencement of the container industry in the 1960s this industry has grown by leaps and bounds and has transformed the way we consume goods. The graph below (World Bank) shows the incredible rise of container shipping as measured in TEU units over the past few decades coinciding with the rise of China and the Western Pacific.

Growth in world containerisation measured in TEU 

East Asian economies now dominate the sea borne trade with massive manufacturing hubs dotting the Western Pacific. The largest ports used to American ports and some western European ports in 1960s. Now all the largest ports in the world unsurprisingly are in East Asia with Shanghai ranked 1 and Singapore following close behind demonstrating how the axis has shifted to the Pacific.  https://www.worldshipping.org/top-50-ports 

Shanghai and the other Chinese ports are truly breathtaking in size and complexity. The author talks about his visit to Yangshan Port in Shanghai and shares valuable insights into the development of this super critical world trade port. I was fortunate to have visited Port Waigaoqiao in Shanghai in 2010 and below are some pictures from that visit which I have taken the liberty to share. 

Copper Cathodes Stored in Shanghai Port Free Trade Zone

Chinese port workers weighing the copper

Thats me in front of a large pile of Copper in the port

China, Singapore and South Korea now have the most integrated shipping networks in the world and their companies dominate sea borne commerce and trade. The Chapters - To Contain the World share deep insights including the rise of some iconic shipping companies like Maersk and OOCL which played a critical role in the development of container shipping industry which in turn changed the world we live in. As the industry has grown and developed, so have the ships that carry this massive volume of trade. The early container ships in the 60s had a capacity ranging between 1,000 - 3,000 TEUs. Today the largest container ship has a size of c. 24,000 TEU, not surprisingly owned by the Taiwanese shipping line Evergreen. 

The Flag Follows the Trade - The US navy, as mentioned above, enjoys unmatched supremacy and controls the world's seas and oceans. Through a combination of large military budgets, cutting edge technologies, mutually reinforcing forward bases and a world wide alliance with other leading nations of the world, the US has secured a pivotal role in controlling the seas and ensuring freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade. 

Enter China!! Since the early 2000s, on the back of incredible economic growth, China has come a new power to challenge the presence of the US. China has embarked on a spree to upgrade and modernise its armed forces and notably its navy. Export of finished goods is critical to China as is the import of raw materials and energy and this is a key vulnerability for the country as all this takes place via sea lanes. China recognised that in a clash with the US it would suffer immeasurably as the US navy controls the water all around China. The US could literally 'choke' China if matters came to a head. 

This prompted China to upgrade its naval capabilities and it started to gain knowledge and confidence first with anti piracy operations far from its own territorial waters. Since then, the rise of the PLAN has put the world in general and the US in particular on notice. This section of the book will chronicle key strategies adopted by the Chinese and US in the control of the sea lanes around China and the Western Pacific. Bruce has shared some very interesting insights and perspectives which make for fascinating reading.   

The Power of the Seas - We maybe lulled into believing that as we continue to make progress it will be the world of high tech that will dominate societies and will be more critical than the transshipment of goods on the high seas. Even if we did subscribe to this notion (which is rather flawed) we cannot forget that more than 90% of the data in the world in carried via undersea cables! The seas and oceans are now even more vital in the data driven, cyber economy and hence protecting this vital infrastructure is paramount. 

The seas and oceans are also an incredible source of sustenance as well. A large percentage of the world's population relies on fish and sea food as a critical source for its dietary needs. Then there are the mineral riches from the seas from oil to natural gas production. All this makes for even heightened control & competition for the seas and oceans. [for more deeper insights into the development of the offshore oil industry my suggestion would be to read the book The Prize by Daniel Yergin]. 

One also cannot ignore the role of water, seas and oceans when it comes to our climate. Through sustained research initially carried out by the UK and US but now by most leading nations of the world, we have come to understand the importance of the oceans in the area of climate. Oceans, currents, temperature differences, ice caps, the inter play between oceans and winds all play a vital role in our evolving climate systems. Further, the incredible ability of the oceans to absorb heat has led to further research around oceans, climate change and global warming. 

"Once oceans were the boundary of our existence; now they are the front lines of the new rivalries that will shape the twenty - first century". This sentence aptly summarises the essence of this excellent book. Will the oceans and the Pacific in particular become a hostile and hotly contested fault line or will seas and oceans continue to further trade, innovation and connections is a question for all of us to debate. Finally, we know so little about the oceans despite they being front and center of our existence. Hence, is it time for the major powers to bury their differences and instead work on transnational issues and better understand and respect the seas and oceans around us? To get some of these answers and better shape your opinions, do buy and read this book!

https://www.amazon.com/Rule-Waves-Control-Determines-Superpowers/dp/1982127252