China's Leaders From Mao To Now - David Shambaugh

China's Leaders from Mao to Now is a book written by David Shambaugh, a political strategist, professor and a long time contemporary China expert. He is a professor at George Washington University in the US and focusses on Chinese politics, political systems, modern China, China foreign relations, the Chinese security apparatus and Asian International Relations. He has written extensively on China & the Chinese Communist Party, has lived in China, studied in China and has observed China very closely for decades. 

I have read another book written by David - Where Great Powers Meet - a book about the countries of South East Asia and they being at the epicentre of US / China conflicts across investment, trade and diplomacy. Both these books are written with a lot of data and information, akin to a serious text book but aimed at the average reader rather than a political affairs journal. This makes it an easy read yet provides the reader with considerable perspective on the topics. My understanding of China's leadership has been greatly amplified after reading this book.

For any country leaders matter. Leaders are there to project the image of the country, leaders get associated with the history and legacy of the country, they formulate the present and construct the future. Understanding leaders is part of understanding a country. In China's context that becomes significantly more important. Unlike countries like the US, where leaders have to contend with institutions, opposition parties, a vocal electorate and an intrusive press, in China leadership plays an extremely pivotal & influential role. In a centralised, command and control apparatus state with limited checks and balances, the leader of the state plays an outsized role that shapes generations.  

This book attempts to profile, evaluate, compare and contrast the five key paramount leaders of China from Mao to Xi and present the reader with a deep analysis of their leadership styles. After reading this book, I was able to understand in significant detail how the leadership in China has evolved and how each leader has differed resulting in major inter generational shifts. As I mentioned earlier, in a strict command and control state like China, what the leader does, his (there has been no her so far) style, his background, his vision and approach and ascent to power matter immensely. China is a relatively opaque country with few institutions and data dissemination is strictly controlled, hence understanding the CCP and the paramount leader is vital in understanding China. 

In my review, I shall summarise in just a few lines what I learnt about each leader from Mao to Hu Jintao. I do this for a couple of reasons. For leaders like Mao and Deng, many books have been written on these two personalities given the transformational impact they had on the country. I would suggest people to read them to get a better understanding of the personalities should they want a very detailed understanding. Secondly, the leadership impact from Mao to Hu Jintao is slowly but surely fading away hence a more detailed analysis of Xi's leadership is merited. 

With that in mind, this is what the book says about these five paramount leaders of modern China. Note these are all David's reflections and not mine. Also this being a succinct book review, it cannot capture all the points, details and nuances that David covers in his book.  

Mao Zedong : the author's last sentence in the book about Mao best summarises Mao's impact on the country. According to David "Mao's greatest accomplishment was to unify the nation - but his greatest failure was to tear it apart" Mao led China from the founding of the PRC on October 1, 1949 till his death in 1976 and had an oversized impact on the country. He favoured a strong personality cult and devotion approach, remain in a constant state of revolution, was enthusiastic in exporting his revolution to other countries, deeply disliked institutions & intellectuals. Hence Mao's China was noted for a number of mass people movement events like the Great Leap Forward, The Cultural Revolution, Hundred Flowers Campaign and the Anti Rightist Campaign. For Mao, revolution to gain power was not sufficient, there had to be constant revolution thereafter to ensure ultimate goals are achieved even if the goals themselves could be unclear. 

The effect of these campaigns was disastrous, millions lost their lives and the country remained in a constant state of flux, anxiety, confusion and insecurity. There were repeated purges of leadership across the CCP and no one felt secure outside and within the CCP; the only constant throughout this long period was the presence of Zhou Enlai. 

Mao was firmly entrenched in Chinese foreign policy and played a key role in building a strong relationship with the Soviets but then oversaw the complete cratering of this relationship and the two nuclear nations were on the brink of war by 1969. Mao played a key role in the Korean War. From a foreign policy perspective, Mao is best remembered for his historic meeting with Richard Nixon in 1972, an event that might be counted as one of the most significant events of the entire 20th century.  

Deng Xiaoping : Deng served as China's paramount leader from 1978 (his impact preceded his formal title) till 1989 and is widely recognised as the architect of the economic rise of China. Unlike Mao, Deng was pragmatic, an institutions man,  consensus builder, welcoming of divergent opinions and seeker of expertise. Unlike Mao, Deng was not entirely distrustful of the West. Deng also recognised China's frailties as it emerged from the years under Mao. 

Deng inculcated changes to the PLA after it failed to achieve its objectives in the 79 Sino Vietnam war. Deng also led the structural reforms of the economy and the establishment of special export zones in the coastal regions of China. Deng worked hard to strengthen the CCP apparatus and re-build an institution to govern which is in contrast to Mao who decimated the party. Deng widely travelled outside of China unlike Mao (who only left China twice to visit the Soviet Union) and embraced western economic principles. Deng is famous for his visits to Singapore, Japan & the US and his astuteness in recognising how countries like Singapore and Japan had leap frogged whilst China was languishing linked to an outdated ideology. Deng preferred to delegate unlike Mao who was totalitarian and utterly centrist in his approach. 

However, it does not mean Deng the economic reformer was the political reformer. Deng was ultimately responsible for brutally quashing the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 that resulted in the PLA taking aggressive actions against the protestors that led to thousands of civilian deaths. Ultimately, Deng is remembered as the man that picked up the post Mao pieces of China, applied pragmatic and rational thinking, readily accepted the weaknesses in China, unleashed economic reforms, and carved the path for the rise of contemporary China.    

Jiang Zemin : The unnatural candidate who was thrust into the paramount leader position after Deng was Jiang Zemin. Before Jiang assumed his role and position, very few in China knew of him and fewer expected him to helm the ship. Upon his appointment, many expected Jiang Zemin to be a 'flower pot' and last a few years before a big shake up would produce a new paramount leader. Jiang defied these expectations, lasted two full terms and his power and influence was felt even after he has left his formal positions. Jiang and his chosen ones continued to impact Hu Jintao's first term in office. Jiang was the first of the technocrat trained leader for China, having studied electrical engineering and worked in Soviet Russia which marked a change from Mao's and Deng's backgrounds. 

Jiang's foremost challenge was bringing China back into the international fold following sanctions and widespread condemnation post the Tiananmen Square tragedy, a task he managed adroitly. Jiang Zemin is also famous for presiding over the peaceful transition and hand over of Hong Kong from the UK to China after he clearly indicated that China would not extend Britain's lease over the island colony. Jiang is also instrumental for the development of the 'one country two systems' concept that would characterise Hong Kong's handover.  Jiang turbo charged the economy although many would accuse the Jiang Zemin period of high but unequal growth that favoured the coastal regions (Shanghai especially) and highly environmentally degrading. However, looking at Chinese GDP growth during his tenor, the verdict is clear; a high of 14% (1992) and on average remained above c. 8% level for his entire term is incredible. Jiang Zemin definitely scored high when it came to steering the Chinese economy. 

As a personality, Jiang was unlike Mao and Deng and unlike any other Chinese leader. He was outgoing, confident, went off script at times, gregarious and keen to engage. Most importantly, Jiang's term as paramount leader coincided with momentous events in Europe including the fall of the Berlin Wall, dismantling of communist states like Poland, termination of the Warsaw Pact and the ultimate - dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. 

For China and the CCP this was one frightening event and many political watchers would commence writing the obituary of the CCP as well. After all, the fountainhead of inspiration for the CCP was the Soviet Union and here in 1991 the almighty Soviet Union itself collapsed. But the events in Europe did not result in the same outcomes in China and under Jiang Zemin the CCP did not unravel and the political system remained unchanged. From this point on, all political leaders in China will continue to evaluate and analyse the fall of communism in the West and seek their own independent assessments to prevent the same from impacting the CCP. From a foreign policy perspective, Jiang Zemin focussed his efforts on the larger powers notably the US, Russia and the EU during his term in office.

Hu Jintao : Hu Jintao assumed office in 2002 and ran for two full terms. Unlike Jiang Zemin who was catapulted into the top job as an unknown, Hu was anointed as a possible fourth generation leader by Deng himself. According to David, Hu had a decade to prepare for the job, a stark contrast to his predecessor but did not use that decade wisely and when he did secure the top job as paramount leader, he lacked a wide base and appeal. Hu Jintao's personality is also a direct contrast to Jiang Zemin and is considerably more measured, sterile, entirely scripted and never veered off the agreed path. Hu Jintao's and Wen Jiabao's (State Council Premier) ten years in power are widely considered by the Chinese as 'ten lost years'.  

Economically, Hu Jintao adjusted his predecessor's approach to the economy. Growth at all costs was modified to have a more inclusive growth model. Jiang Zemin had favoured coastal development and Shanghai based businesses. Hu Jintao started to focus on the internal provinces and tried to adjust the gap between the coast and the interiors. He also focussed on the environmental aspect of growth which was neglected under Jiang. Annual average growth rate under Hu Jintao was a staggering 10.5%. 

Hu Jintao continued to try to reform and liberalise the party and the country. However, he had limited success and especially by his second term, hardliners had a more dominant position than him in decision making. Hu Jintao also presided over three key events for China namely the Beijing Olympics, the Shanghai World Expo and the 60th anniversary of the PRC. Again Hu Jintao demonstrated a steady hand across all three events. Hu Jintao also made a major foreign policy pivot by engaging the wider international community. Whilst Jiang had largely focussed on the leading western nations, Hu Jintao began to engage the global south. China's outreach to African nations and other developing nations occured under Hu Jintao's tenor. Hu Jintao also was the first to stress the importance of 'soft power' when it came to global outreach. Relations with the US and Taiwan were also positive and according to David best across decades. 

David does argue, Hu Jintao did not fully establish his own personal mark across his two terms. The initial portion of his term was partly influenced by Jiang Zemin who continued to maintain his presence despite his term having ended. The latter part of Hu Jintao's term was impacted by the rise of conservatives namely Bo Xilai and Xi Jinping. Unsurprisingly, 2009-10 is marked as a pivotal year for China - "the year of assertiveness". This marks the time when China's relationship with its neighbours and the wider international community began to take more antagonistic proportions and change course. 

David feels that whilst Hu Jintao has been judged as a weak and ineffective leader and his two terms characterised as a lost decade, he may, over time get better recognition for the work he was able to accomplish and secure a more positive verdict. 

Xi Jinping : Xi Jinping ascended to the top job in 2012 and is the current paramount leader of China. According to David, Xi marks a major break in the leadership style and approach compared to his predecessors. When Xi took the top job, few really understood what he really stood for and that he would bring about momentous changes on all fronts. 

First big change compared to the other leaders is gained by understanding Xi's background. Xi's father was a very senior leader in the CCP, had fought alongside Mao, was chief of CCP propaganda, Vice Premier under Zhou Enlai; essentially up there at the very top of the CCP. Xi thus had a very privileged childhood until is was all completely upended by the Cultural Revolution when his father was purged in 1962. Xi has spent many years in rural China (read that as hard labour) and the family was disunited for more than a decade. Xi's father was finally rehabilitated and under Deng was appointed as Party Secretary of Guangdong Province where he was instrumental in starting up the famous SEZs . Xi therefore comes a very privileged background but has also witnessed a tremendous shock to the family. Xi's first wife's father was China's ambassador to the UK and his second wife Peng Liyuan a solider and singer for the PLA. "He has iron in his soul" - is how Lee Kuan Yew describes Xi Jinping and when LKY has a viewpoint it means something. 

When Xi ascended to power his first speech emphasised the need for China to regain preeminence among world nations and become a powerful nation. For Xi it was not about reform and opening up, it was about global preeminence. The other key point that Xi emphasised was a severe crack down on corruption, something that Xi has been associated with for a long time before he took the top job. The third dimension that was added by Xi according to David was the primacy of the CCP. "no CCP, no new China" hence the CCP is inextricably linked to the growth and development of China and is a vital part of China. The fourth dimension that was added is crucial and described below. 

From the fall of the Soviet Union, the CCP begun detailed analysis of the causes of the fall and what went wrong. Two distinct schools of thought emerged. The first school centred its thoughts and conclusions that Gorbachev's reforms were correct but was a case of the reforms being too late. The rot had been there for years, probably from the time of Leonid Brezhnev and hence the party failed as reforms came too late. This was the school of thought that Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao subscribed to and pursued incremental reforms as a means to strengthen society and the CCP. However, according to David, there is a second school of thought; one that says the reforms itself precipitated the crisis and led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This is a thought Xi Jinping subscribes to and hence according to David, in this approach political reforms, individual freedom and devolution / de-centralisation of power would result in chaos and would led to weakening / disbanding and not strengthening the CCP. Hence, utmost control should be maintained over the political system, security apparatus and the military establishment.      

In David's opinion the current leadership style is retrogressive rather than progressive and is deeply rooted in the early founding of the PRC. Xi has nostalgia for the 50s and 60s when Soviet influence was very strong. That also means rolling back many of Deng's initiatives, something David refers to as 'Dismantling Denigism'. Deng as noted above, preferred no personality cults, consensus based decision making, devolution of power, feedback mechanisms from the people to the party, term limits and relative individual freedom. Deng was also cautious and circumspect when it came to foreign relations preferring to bide time. 

Xi on the other hand, and I quote here from David's book "... Xi absolutely and unapologetically rejects the linkage of progress with liberalism. Quite the contrary, Xi is a hardcore Leninist, and in some ways a throwback to the Stalinist era". But unlike Mao, the CCP, the party, its functions, establishment, pervasiveness etc matter paramount to Xi but like Mao it is coupled with a larger than life image of the paramount leader that is omnipresent across all dimensions of life. The party's primacy must also be reflected in economic affairs, which is a direct contrast to Deng who preferred to unleash the Chinese entrepreneurial spirit and private enterprise. 

David's book has many specific sub chapters under Xi Jinping's leadership, strategies and ideas thats cover vital topics like Dismantling Dengism, Navigating The Middle Income Trap, Revamped Repression, Military Reforms (whilst Xi has not served in the PLA he is extremely close to the PLA and has made military reforms and modernisation his top priority along with strengthening the CCP) and Foreign Policy (BRI, Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, Global Engagement Outreach, China Rejuvenation). David strikes a very cautious, sombre and a rather ominous tone which causes the reader to reflect considerably on potential outcomes for China.

[For more information the reader can also review and read about some of the other key people that form the close leadership besides Xi include Wang Qishan, Vice President; Li Zhanshu; and Wang Huning - "China's Kissinger". 

I have also taken the liberty here to include a link to an important webpage that one would learn a lot by reviewing it. There are some incredible insights from a person who has been consulted by everyone from Deng to Xi Jinping and likewise from Nixon to Obama. 

https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/lee-kuan-yew-grand-masters-insights-china-united-states-and-world]

Overall, the book is a great read and provides a lot of deep insights into many key personalities that have impacted China's modern history. For anyone who is keen to better understand China this would be a valuable read and good reference point. 

https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Leaders-Mao-David-Shambaugh/dp/1509546510