De-Carbonising The Industrial Sector - Carbon Capture - Part D

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) is an integral part of the decarbonisation story but this strategy has not been well understood or publicised till date. CCS has also been grossly underfunded in the past decade as compared to solar or wind power generation or electric vehicles. Per some estimates, solar power has attracted annual investments of around US$ 80 -120 billion or more per annum in the last decade - CCS on the other hand has been struggling to secure capital (<US$ 5 billion per annum). 

Understanding the big picture

Before we jump into what CCS is, what its challenges are and its applications, it would be advisable to take one step back and appreciate a fundamental concept of decarbonisation. 

To achieve decarbonisation or net zero society there are two fundamental approaches. In common nomenclature the two are expressed as (a) conservation or prevention techniques (b) sequestration or capture techniques. 

Solar or Wind generation are good examples of conservation techniques. With conservation or prevention techniques, power is generated from wind or solar assets without the emission of CO2 or GHGs. This is one critical technique towards de-carbonization. On the other hand, there are sequestration or capture techniques that attempt to capture the CO2 being emitted into the atmosphere. 

The world needs both prevention AND capture to achieve net zero. There is no path that suggests one technique can be used exclusively. Both have vital roles to play. 

Conservation techniques especially in power generation are competitive on $/ton of carbon basis largely due to the fall in solar and wind generation costs. The cost of carbon is calculated by swapping solar for coal fired generation, determining the cost of swapping coal to solar and working out how much CO2 has been saved over the life of the assets after the swap. For wind and solar, the costs to switch are negligible and at times even negative (cash accretive to swap coal to solar). 

However,  conservation costs ($/CO2) rise sharply for sectors that are hard to abate such as CO2 emissions from cement, airlines, shipping etc. The alternatives to prevent CO2 generation for these sectors is very expensive. There is where sequestration comes in. 

Sequestration has three buckets. (A) Natural sinks - forests are prime examples. Plants and trees use CO2 from the atmosphere as part of photosynthesis and emit oxygen (B) CCS which we shall evaluate in more detail (C) DAC or direct air capture. Similar to CCS but unlike CCS which is associated with a particular emitter of CO2 (e.g. coal fired plant), DAC is about capturing CO2 from the air directly. 

Sequestration as a technique may not be competitive where coal fired generation can be swapped for solar. However, as we move into reducing CO2 emissions from industry (e.g. cement) or harder to abate sectors like airlines, sequestration could be more competitive than conservation. 

Summary

To understand the full picture around decarbonisation always consider both conservation (reduces or eliminates CO2 emissions) and sequestration (captures CO2 emitted). These two approaches have different applications across the CO2 emitting world and are best used as complimentary techniques rather than competing ones.  

The graph below gives you a very good sense how the two techniques interplay. Also note the tighter range of cost uncertainty around conservation techniques as compared to sequestration. 

CCS - Carbon Capture (Step 1)

The first step in CCS is capturing carbon. Capturing CO2 from industrial plants and power stations has been ongoing and is not a brand new technique. The challenge this decade is to expand and scale up its applications across the world beyond natural gas processing plants and power generation. 

Two principal methods to capture CO2 are (a) physical separation (b) chemical absorption. There are other techniques as well which are evolving like the use of membranes. 

Chemical absorption uses solvents. Solvents absorb the CO2 from the flue gas (CO2 emitting stream) column. The solvent is then heated at high temperature in another column to release the CO2 and the solvent can then be re-used. A relatively mature technique, has been used in power plants in the US, steel projects, waste to energy facilities. Physical absorption is based on absorption or adsorption. Adsorption takes place via a solid like activated carbon. Absorption on the other hand takes place via a liquid surface like solvents. After the CO2 has been captured, it is released separately via heat, pressure or vacuum. Physical separation has been used in natural gas processing plants, ethanol, methanol production facilities and is mostly used in the US. 

The appropriate technique used to capture CO2 depends on:

- Initial CO2 concentration: the higher the CO2 concentration, the easier to capture and more cost effective

- Final desired CO2 emission levels: as the target capture rates are higher naturally the cost increases 

- Temperature and pressure requirements and availability 

- Cost considerations : one of the key cost consideration is CO2 concentration levels. If the CO2 levels are high to begin with then it becomes economical and cost effective of a $ per CO2 captured basis. Thats why CCS has mostly been used in natural gas processing plants as of now where CO2 concentration is very high. It also explains why direct air capture (DAC) of CO2 from the air is so expensive as CO2 concentration in the air is very low. The graph below shows the cost of CO2 capture as depicted by IEA. 

That is why CCS is actively used in gas processing plants or ethanol production. Look at the $/ton cost to capture CO2 directly from the air in comparison.  

- flow rates of flue gas that contains the CO2 and finally 

- integration of the CCS with the source of emissions 

CCS - CO2 transport (Step 2)

Transport is the next step after capturing CO2. The captured CO2 needs to be transported to a safe and secure location for long term storage. Without transport CCS fails. The prime mode of transporting CO2 is pipelines although ships, trains and trucks can also be considered. As of now the cheapest mode remains pipelines especially when final storage location is onshore. North America where CCS is most common, benefits from the extensive pipeline network that exists for transporting CO2. 

Transport costs can be around 25% of the total cost. The cost depends a lot on how much CO2 is to be transported, the distance, size of the pipelines, pressure & moisture content requirements. The cheapest of course is to repurpose existing oil & gas pipelines subject to HSE parameters. If the final storage location is an offshore structure then transport cost goes much higher. Offshore adds considerable complexities to CCS operations and ships might have to be used in place of pipelines if distances are too great. 

The U in CCS? (Step 3)

Sometimes CCS is referred to as CCUS. The U stands for utilisation, i.e. utilisation of CO2 that has been captured and transported. Around 230-250 million tons of CO2 is used by industry today (world emits around 35 billion tons of CO2 per annum). The two primary applications of CO2 are (i) manufacture of Urea where CO2 is used as a feedstock (ii) Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) 

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_oil_recovery#:~:text=Enhanced%20oil%20recovery%20(abbreviated%20EOR,using%20primary%20and%20secondary%20recovery.]  

where CO2 is injected into existing oil & gas production sites to enhance the recovery of hydrocarbons. 

The other potential applications for CO2 in the future could include synthetic fuels like methanol, production of chemicals and use of CO2 in building materials. All these are relatively untried and untested and it would be hard to provide an estimate on the usage potential for CO2 in these applications. 

Use of CO2 is a vital factor from a cost perspective. If the captured CO2 finds a use then the cost of CCS drops. However, usage of CO2 needs to be carefully considered. Otherwise it may result in captured CO2 being returned back to the atmosphere thus defeating the purpose of CCS. To this effect EOR and the building materials sector are attractive as CO2 remains captured for a very long time. Use of CO2 as a synthetic fuel much less so as the captured CO2 gets released back upon combustion of the synthetic fuel. 

CCS - Storage - (Step 3)

After CO2 is captured and transported comes the final stage which is CO2 must be stored securely to prevent CO2 being released back into the atmosphere. We did discuss some uses of CO2 earlier. If there is a use for the captured CO2 then its great but if not it must be stored. 

Storage involves injecting the CO2 into deep underground formations that meet the stated requirements of a porous rock where the CO2 can be housed and a impermeable layer of rock which provides the seal to prevent the CO2 from escaping. The two most preferred formations are (i) saline formations - porous rock with saline water acting as a seal and (ii) depleted oil & gas reservoirs as they previously have stored hydrocarbons in a porous rock with an impermeable rock layer on top. Gas reservoirs (low CO2 reservoirs) are especially preferred.  As EOR is now fairly common, storing CO2 in depleted fields is well established and proven. 

Storage sites are not expected to be the constraint for CCS. As per the IEA, storage capacity as of today ranges between 8,000 giga tons to 55,000 giga tons. Geographically North America, Russia and Africa have the highest storage potential. Onshore storage will be preferred to offshore as the costs to transport and store is much lower. To set the storage capacity in perspective, the IEA estimates the lowest bound of storage capacity is 8,000 giga tons whereas the total cumulative CO2 capture via CCS from 2020 to 2070 is 220 giga tons under IEA's decarbonisation / net zero scenario.

Risk of leakage of CO2 has been playing on the minds of many CCS skpetics. However, there is a long history of injecting and storing CO2 safely and securely. 

From a cost perspective, the cost of storing CO2 is much lower than capturing or transporting CO2. Cost of storage is based on methods of injections, location of the site and storage characteristics. If CO2 is being used for EOR purposes then costs can be offset via higher production of hydrocarbons. Onshore storage in the US could be below $10/ton of CO2 stored for nearly 60% of the sites. 

CCS Challenges

CCS has faced underinvestment in the past decade. CCS projects received very little funding hence the technology remained sub scale as compared to solar or wind power generation. A section of environmentalists have attacked CCS since it does not prevent the use of hydrocarbons but focusses on capturing CO2 hence does not encourage a pivot away from hydrocarbons. As CO2 gets used as EOR projects, the complaint is using CO2 for EOR results in more hydrocarbon recovery thus the solution is facilitating more hydrocarbon usage. 

Capturing CO2, i.e. step 1 is the hardest and costliest. CO2 capture needs energy which adds to costs and CO2 being emitted in the process. Transporting CO2 is not easy and may require new pipelines or re-tooling existing ones.

Despite these challenges, CCS is expected to become front and centre of decarbonisation strategies this coming decade. In part E we shall look at the trends and changes to CCS that are expected to impact it this coming decade.  

The Pacific Ocean - Some Interesting Facts

The Pacific Ocean is this vast body of water and understanding it is vital to understanding the Earth. Besides understanding it from a scientific perspective, the Pacific Rim is now the most vibrant and dynamic part of the world, dotted with the largest economies, high technology hubs and powerful armies and navies. The note below shares some important facts and features of the Pacific ocean and I have included links to a few YouTube videos to provide additional information or context. Happy reading and learning!

Size - The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of all the ocean bodies on the Earth. At 165m sq Km it is larger than all the land masses on Earth put together. It's widest section from Indonesia to Colombia spans around 19,800 km and the Pacific ocean amounts to 28% of the Earth's surface. The Pacific contains around half the Earth's entire water which is not surprising given its large area. Islands dot the entire Pacific and there are more than 20,000 of these islands in the ocean, each unique geographies and cultures. The Pacific ocean is also shrinking in size at the rate of around 0.5sq km per annum with a corresponding increasing offset of the Atlantic ocean due to phenomena called plate tectonics and subduction. 

Discovery - Whist indigenous people have been living across the various Pacific islands for thousands of years, the modern discovery of the Pacific is attributed to the Portuguese explorer - Vasco Nunez de Balboa in 1513 when he crossed the Isthmus of Panama and sighted the Pacific. Ferdinand Magellan first recorded the crossing of the Pacific in 1521 and also gave it the name that stands till today 'The Pacific Ocean" - the peaceful sea. Since then, the European powers greatly expanded their ambit of presence & conquest in the Pacific including the Spanish, Dutch, French, German & English and established various colonial outposts across the Pacific and in latter years were matched by the Americans. The Americans now have many military bases dotted across the Pacific and control of the Pacific is vital for the American navy. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uE4pWxMbmg] 

Weather & Climate - Oceans in general and the Pacific in particular have immense heat storing capabilities. Oceans also provide for the intersections of warm and cold water and the Pacific is infamous of key weather related events like El Nino and La Nina because of the vast and critical interchange between the oceans and atmosphere. The great size of the Pacific and especially given large parts of the ocean lie between the Tropics make it the largest area covered by the Trade Winds and hence a key driver of global climate and weather patterns. The eastern boundary of the Pacific experiences storms called Hurricanes which are called Typhoons in the Western Pacific. The Pacific is also a region of high rainfall. 

Deepest Trench - The Challenger Deep, part of the Marianas Trench is the deepest known point on the Earth. Crescent shaped, the trench is around 11 Km deep. The trench is located close to the Island of Guam. The trench is deeper than Mt. Everest and the pressure at the bottom is more than 1,000 bar. More people have walked on the moon than on the Marianas Trench and thus remains a highly un-explored region. Despite the high pressure and completely absence of sunlight, complex life forms exist even in the deepest parts of the ocean which has resulted in new scientific discoveries around the origin of life on the planet  [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VRnNHSqNKo] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0G68ORc8uQ] 

Tallest Mountain - Mauna Kea one of the six volcanic mountains that have formed the island of Hawaii is the world's tallest mountain at 9,966m in height. However, as a large part of Mauna Kea lies below the sea level, Mount Everest remains the tallest peak measured from mean sea level.  

Garbage - There is a significant amount of debris and garbage in Pacific ocean caused by indiscriminate dumping by humans. There are infact two established garbage patches, the Western garbage patch located near Japan and the Eastern garbage patch near Hawaii. Garbage accumulates in these regions largely because of the specific nature of the Pacific ocean currents. The garbage is mostly plastic as it does not bio degrade and a large component of this is micro plastic. The garbage resides not only at the surface but will sink into the lower portions of the ocean as well. The accumulation of garbage in the Pacific has now become a gigantic problem and since the patches are located in regions far from any country, the chances of a clean up are remote unfortunately. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtaNqGyHkNE] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsjvwQclGLo]

Ring of Fire - The Pacific Plate and plate tectonics are at the heart of the ring of fire. The ring of fire is located all around the edges of the Pacific Ocean and is the home of volcanic activity and earthquakes. More than 80% of the world's volcanoes and devastating earthquakes (c. 90%) happen around the Pacific fault lines dotted by the ring of fire. One of the reasons is the faster movement of the Pacific plate (the largest tectonic plate) relative to other tectonic plates in the region. Processes including subduction play a critical role that results in frequent instability and earthquakes. The largest and most deadly volcanic eruption that took place in recorded history was Krakatoa (other was Tambora also in Indonesia) in Indonesia in 1883. Explosions were heard nearly 4,000 miles away and ash and projectile was propelled to a distance of 80 km upwards. Tsunami waves crossed a 100ft and more than 30,000 people died as a result of this explosion. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8q1Ur3Z6dT0]

Pacific Rim - Islands in the Pacific and nations that border the Pacific ocean are today the most vibrant and dominant part of the global economy. Billions live in and around the coastal regions of the Pacific including the West Coast of N America, Japan, Korea, China and Indonesia. Dominant economies dot the edges of the Pacific making this the most dynamic region in the world connected by the vast expanse of the Pacific ocean. The Pacific rim is the world's leading technology hub. 

Great Barrier Reef (GBF) - The GBF located off the eastern coast of Australia is one of the seven wonder of the natural world, is larger than the Great Wall of China and is the only living creature that is visible from outer space. Stretching 2,300km, it is the largest coral reef foundation in the world. Climate Change is making very visible impacts on the GBF with coral bleaching being one of them. 

Point Nemo - The remotest point on Earth, Point Nemo, is an imaginary location in the Pacific Ocean. It lies about 2,700 km from the nearest land body. When boats pass close to Point Nemo they are closer to the International Space Station than to any land body on Earth. Point Nemo has also become a dumping ground for decommissioned satellites, space stations etc given its remoteness. The only humans who get close to the imaginary Point Nemo are those that take place in the Volvo ocean race.     

Hawaii & Pearl Harbour - Dec 7, 1941 is forever etched in the history of the Pacific especially the United States and Japan. The day after the attack, FDR and Congress declared war on Japan and formally entered WW2 and decisively changed the outcome of the great war. The surprise attack by Japan disabled the US Pacific fleet with a number of ships and destroyers damaged. Miraculously the air craft carriers of the US escaped this attack by the Japanese and they would play a critical role in future engagements with the Japanese. More than 2,000 US servicemen died in the Pearl Harbour attack which FDR declared "a day that will live in infamy".  The Pacific thereafter saw significant naval and military engagements between Japan and the Allied forces (principally the US) including the infamous island hopping campaign and notable sea battles like Coral Sea and Midway. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvInlqvE8IU] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kipF5zoCGAk] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB5hH3ksvKE]  

Atomic Age - The Pacific rim has seen two of the most devastating bombs in the history which detonated at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan in 1945. These two atomic weapons killed thousands and hastened the unconditional surrender of Japan and brought an end to WW2. Since then, the US, UK and France have tested a number of atomic weapons across the Pacific given the remoteness and vastness of the ocean. The Pacific therefore is the first and only atomic ocean. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFUVN0pJayY] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fq3WRPr2qQ] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCtxSlH0DK0] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1up-TRMxdo]

Galapagos - The Galapagos are islands in the Pacific that are distributed on both sides of the equator and form part of Ecuador. The Galapagos are inextricably linked to Charles Darwin and his theory of natural selection. It was his five week visit in 1835 to these Pacific islands that led Darwin to observe that species whilst similar from island to island were perfectly suited and adapted for the environment they lived in. His theories considerably advanced work and thought leadership around natural selection, evolution and origin of species. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOiUZ3ycZwU]

Pacific by Simon Winchester

Pacific : Silicon Chips & Surfboards, Coral Reefs and Atom Bombs, Brutal Dictators and Fading Empires by Simon Winchester as the name suggests is a book about the Pacific Ocean. Simon is a prolific writer and has written numerous books on diverse subjects including leading personalities, events, the Earth and the world around us. I had bought a book written by Simon last year and was not impressed by it; the book is titled Land. I would not recommend that book titled 'Land'. I chanced upon this book - Pacific whilst browsing the National Library in Singapore for some interesting reads. The index looked appealing and hence I borrowed the same to further my curiosity and evaluate how this book would be.

The book is well written and is rather innovative. Simon looks at the Pacific from many dimensions and not just as a body of water. The Pacific is now the most interesting and dynamic region of the world and has supplanted the Atlantic in terms of importance, size and preeminence. The Pacific is home to the world's largest economies, most powerful navies, cutting edge high tech hubs, hot beds for scientific research especially around climate change & oceanography and is surrounded by more than two billion people along its eastern and western coastlines. Most critically, the Pacific is where the new fault lines are emerging replacing Germany which was the fault line during the cold war with the Russians in the 20th century. 

The book has numerous chapters covering a multitude of issues. In this review, I shall cover top four chapters that I felt were unique to the Pacific ocean and the Pacific rim and extremely interesting. A review of these four chapters should generate enough interest for the reader to read the entire book in detail. 

The interesting aspect about the book is the way it has been written. To elaborate further, let me cite one example. A key feature of the Pacific rim is the presence of dominant economies on both the Eastern and Western Pacific with incredible volume and value of trade, commerce and investment flowing back and forth. Simon charter's this growth and development by sharing insights about Sony Corporation's rise after WW2 as a specific case in point and then balances this out with a more expansive view on trade and development of industry & manufacturing across the Pacific rim countries. This is a common theme that will run across many chapters and that's what makes this book different and interesting. 

Mr. Ibuka's Radio Revolution - the first part of this chapter is dedicated to the rise of Sony Corporation, a company founded by two engineers Masaru Ibuka and Akio Morita, who is the more well known personality of the two. Sony was born from the aftermath of WW2 as the nation began its incredible rise from the ashes (literally) and at a time when 20% of Tokyo suffered from tuberculosis and there was no semblance of any law and order or infrastructure. 

Sony exemplifies the West Pacific rim manufacturing story centred around precision, miniaturisation, high quality, scale, perfection and innovation especially in the field of consumer electronics. The chapter begins with the foundations of Sony Corp, its foray into transistor radios and building from there into a range of consumer devices that marry the machine to the artist, by amusing and entertaining the individual and playing on emotions and sentiments. Times have changed and since 2014 Japan has become a net importer of consumer electronics; an industry it spawned and dominated. Whilst Japan may have faded, its place was taken up by other Pacific Rim regions like South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and then of course China. The current axis is firmly anchored across China and the US which marks a seismic shift for the US and in turn generates a lot of challenges. With Japan, the US relationship was with a country that was an enemy but became a friend; with China on the other hand, it is a country that was an ally but now turning into an adversary. 

Of Masters & Commanders - Oct 26, 2006 - year zero when Chinese naval ambitions perceptibly changed. As you may have guessed this chapter is about US and Chinese naval supremacy for the waters of the Pacific, the US forward projection of power and the Chinese attempts to deter the US and create a wide buffer zone for its own navy. Whilst 2006 was the year when a Chinese submarine tailed and came within striking distance of the USS Kitty Hawk, an American aircraft carrier, this chapter starts with events much earlier. It commences in 1991 with the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo that rendered useless the two critical US bases in the South China Sea / Pacific - Subic and Clarke (in the Philippines) thus considerably weakening America's power in that part of the world. The chapter elaborates on the militarisation of the South China Sea,  The First Island Chain defence for China, The American pivot to the Pacific, Anti Access / Area Denial concept, Air Sea Battle counter, Admiral Liu Huaqing [https://cimsec.org/father-modern-chinese-navy-liu-huaqing/], Andrew Marshall [https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/05/andrew-marshall-brain-pentagon-passed-away/588952/] and steps & counter steps taken by China and America in what is now a clear escalating arms and naval race.  

Echoes of a Distant Thunder - Cyclone Tracy that hit Darwin in the 70s and Haiyan the super Typhoon that hit Philippines in 2013 are just two of the many devastating weather events that impact the Pacific rim. The Pacific is where the storms with the greatest intensities tend to get generated and their frequency is significantly greater than say the Atlantic ocean. The vastness of the Pacific ocean, coupled with a large part of the Pacific water body located between the two Tropics means it becomes a significant reservoir of heat, energy and hence weather patterns. The Pacific is also home to the most important weather phenomenon namely ENSO El Nino and the Southern Oscillation. The ENSO is now considered to be the most critical and important weather pattern and disruption event that occurs in the Pacific Ocean but impacts global weather patterns. 

Fires in the Deep - February 1977, one of the greatest maritime discoveries of all time happened in the Pacific. It was the discovery of deep ocean hydro thermal vents that changed many views about the origins of life and of incredible minerals and wealth at the bottom of the oceans. Life forms discovered around the hydrothermal vents defied the existing reasoning demonstrating that active life forms existed at unheard of depths, where the pressure is significant, there is complete absence of sunlight, warmth and no known established nutrients. A seminal paper was written in Science on this phenomenon [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226614578_The_Prokaryotes] due to the deep under sea / ocean work carried out in the Pacific. 

In addition, work carried in the deep oceans like the Pacific confirmed the existence of underwater mountains, ridges, valleys, eruptions and plate tectonic theories. The unique tectonic architecture of the Pacific plate (which is the largest tectonic plate on Earth) and its jostling with other plates creates the unique but deadly Ring of Fire around the Pacific rim. This deadly Ring of Fire encapsulates more than 400 active volcanoes and deadly earth quakes caused by the movement of the Pacific plate against the other plates in the region. 

Besides these four chapters there are many other chapters that share wonderful insights and secrets around the Pacific ocean including a chapter on the Korean war, garbage floating in the Pacific, the fragile ecosystem of the Pacific including the world of corals. growth of Hong Kong and the handover of Hong Kong from the UK to the Chinese and atomic testing programs in the Pacific. 

There is a wealth of knowledge to be obtained by reading many of the chapters in this book. The power of the Pacific, what lies beneath it and around its rim makes for fascinating reading. This is a book that should be read by anyone interested in science, climate, and the geopolitics around the most dynamic region in the world - the Pacific.  

https://www.amazon.com/Pacific-Silicon-Surfboards-Dictators-Empires/dp/0062315420

The New Map by Daniel Yergin

The New Map by Daniel Yergin is a book on Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations. The book has been recently published in 2020 by Penguin Random House and covers the fascinating intersection of energy, energy transition, the intersection of the Big Three - the US, Russia and China, geopolitics and  technology. Daniel Yergin is a Pulitzer Prize winning author and expert on the Energy Industry. This is third book of Daniel that I have read besides The Prize - A phenomenally interesting book and The Quest, a book I found much less engaging than the Prize. Daniel is also the Vice Chair at IHS Markit, one of the world's most established energy research houses, a senior trustee at Brookings Institute and has been closely associated with US Energy Policies across both Democrat and Republican administrations. 

The initial few chapters are devoted to the Big Three and their respective energy and geopolitical maps. 

For the US the key theme is the emergence of Shale Oil and Gas and the ability of the US and North American continent to become a major energy player and exporter, something that was unthinkable a few decades ago. The role of innovation, determination, burgeoning private sector and deep financial markets demonstrates how a country can radically transform its bargaining position and disrupt an established order namely OPEC to its advantage. The Shale revolution gave the US a fantastic set of cards to play with that have wide reaching consequences for the rest of the world.  

Energy and Russia have been inextricably linked for more than a century now. One of the largest energy producers, the Russian State and the energy industry are closely intertwined and lines are blurred between the use of energy to secure economic gains or score political wins. Russia's dominant energy position has enabled it to play an outsized role in impacting European and Middle Eastern political and economic systems and now increasingly in Asia as it pivots to new markets to counterbalance a dependence on Europe for selling its energy. 

And there is China. Whilst the US and Russia have been energy and geopolitical heavyweights for generations, there is the new elephant (or dragon) in the room and that is China. With its meteoric rise driven by a hyper scaled manufacturing base, essentially the workshop of the world, China has an outsized role in modern energy markets. Along with that comes the paranoia of being a massive energy importer as energy is fundamental to its development and establishment as a key geopolitical power. Chapters cover the key energy choke points, South China Sea, Belt and Road Initiative, China Trade and Commerce and the rise of Chinese nationalism, self confidence and modernisation impact of its armed forces.   

When we think of maps and energy our minds are immediately drawn to the Middle East. The book devotes considerable pages towards the historical settings that created the modern Middle Eastern map. The book covers all the key issues namely, Iran, Iraq, the house of Saudi Arabia, Gulf Wars, Arab Nationalism, Islamic Fundamentalism, Arab Spring Revolutions, Proxy Wars including the Sunni Shia divide, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Eastern Med and their future in a world that is less oil dependent. Considerable detail has been spent trying to provide the reader with valuable insight and context into very important considerations that shape a key energy region which is highly unstable and subject to rapidly changing developments. 

The map of energy has to include the map of the future. The primary demand for oil is transportation hence understanding the evolution of the EV market is fundamental. Three key forces are discussed including electrification of the car (rise of Tesla etc), self driving cars and 'servicization' of the car due to the likes of Uber via technology.  

The book ends appropriately with the 'Climate Map'. A super critical chapter on a pressing issue namely the Climate Crisis. As we push for more energy to grow our economies we need to balance that with the danger of GHG emissions and the impact on climate. The demand for electricity will continue to rise and with that pressure to switch from coal to gas to renewables. These forces are swiftly unfolding as I write this review and every country is working towards growing its power generation base but increasing renewables in the power mix. To compound matters, there is a huge divide between developed and developing countries when it comes to the energy transition with valid arguments on both divides. 

The book is a spectacular read and covers all the key issues that impact the world today in particular the energy world. The book has gone into sufficient detail across many key developments and provided the appropriate historical and political contexts. This is vital as the energy world as we see it today is not just a function of the energy industry but has immensely been shaped by the arc of history and geopolitics. The next stop is to go the IHS Markit portal and download the articles that are referenced across the book to get a more complete picture. Daniel Yergin has once again demonstrated excellent knowledge of this industry and the book I dare say is a must read!

https://www.amazon.com/New-Map-Energy-Climate-Nations/dp/B086DLRRLT

Falter by Bill McKibben

Falter is a book written by Bill McKibben and published in 2019 by Holt Publications. Bill lives in Vermont, and works at Middlebury College. Bill has been one of the early advocates of the perils of climate change and the environmental impacts humans have created and has written books about it including the End of Nature. 

What is this book about? 

Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out? Apparently, that is the question this book intends to examine and answer. The book is a NY Times best seller and top ten read by the Washington Post. To me, I am not sure exactly why its a top ten read but I am not here to question their judgement. 

Falter is a book about us 'humans' and the impact we have had, are having and intend to have on the planet, its ecosystem, other living organisms, and on humans as well. A lot of concepts, all rolled into one paperback book of around 300 odd pages. Some of the big issues that Bill writes about are (a) climate change (b) technology and AI (c) humans playing with humankind and in the process creating a super human i.e. CRISPR / germline alteration. The book has a distinct alarmist tone across most topics.  

I would read the book for a few chapters around climate change and thats it. To me, a book that races from climate change, to society, love and emotions, non violent protest, CRISPR, AI & Robotics, the quest for immortality, global inequality, Exxon bashing, space exploration etc is not focussing on one core issue as a start. 

The first few chapters under the topic 'Size of the Board' are worth reading. Although, if you want a more systematic approach to understand the dire impacts of climate change, I suggest reading chapters from Uninhabitable Earth by David Wells. David has analysed the key threats from climate change in a succinct, focussed manner with supporting data in most instances. That is more impactful and provides the reader with the necessary focus on this looming problem. Importantly, when you do witness carnage from a climate related event (e.g. a forest fire) you can go back to the specific chapter to refresh and gain a deeper insight into that issue. Falter also tries to highlight these issues but they are scattered across chapters hence I prefer the approach adopted by David. 

The book then leaps into the impacts of corporate America, Koch Brothers, Exxon, Ann Rand, politicians (Bush, Trump, Obama etc), protest, voting related issues etc. These are all topics by themselves and a few pages in a paperback won'd do any justice to these complex issues. 

Chapters on AI, robotics, machine learning and the future of machines again touch on very complex issues, perhaps even more than climate change. There is a near global consensus (you don't need to highlight Trump here) on the problems associated with climate change. Divergence is around how to tackle this problem and who pays for the pivot to a more sustainable world. In contrast, topics like AI, the scene is still evolving, arguments for and against are still being formulated and the canvas rapidly changing. Of course, all new technology is highly disruptive and will impact society and humans, in some cases disproportionately. But it is just too early to tell what that will be. Nonetheless, devoting a few pages on a evolving issue can do no justice at all.

Up next is CRISPR. That's a recent acronym but with immense potential that can be good, bad and ugly for all of us. Once again, a highly complex topic where a few pages can do little to educate the reader beyond alarmism. If you are keen to know more about CRISPR, read Code Breakers by Walter Isascson. Its got detail and chronicles all the key events that led to this immense scientific / biological breakthrough.

The standout chapter in the book is chapter 20. Definitely read that one and it can be read in isolation to the rest of the book which is good news. This chapter narrates the marvel of power and electricity, what it can do in remote places in Africa by uplifting societies and how it can be done sustainably without damaging the environment (solar power). The latter part of Chapter 22 is superb and it highlights the work of Nicole Poindexter in Africa. For more on Nicole, visit http://energicitycorp.com/nicole-poindexter-ceo-and-founder/. 

Unusually for a book, but for this one I do suggest; go through the references / notes section. A lot of links provided to articles that are available to read on the internet and will complement what you have read in the book. Finally, the acknowledgements section where you will get the names of some thought leaders especially in the area of climate change worthy of following.  

Overall, this is not an outstanding book as the NYTimes or Washington Post suggest it is. If you are keen to know more about the climate and environment, do pick it up and read selectively but bear in mind that whilst a lot of problems and issues are listed, not many concrete solutions will emerge from the book.

https://www.amazon.com/Falter-Human-Game-Begun-Itself/dp/1250178266

  

The Mosquito by Timothy C. Winegard

The Mosquito is the title of the book written by Timothy Winegard and is published by the Penguin group first in 2019. Timothy Winegard is an assistant professor of history and political science at the Colorado Mesa University and has written three other books besides this one. 

This book was on my reading list for a few reasons. Firstly, we are in the midst of a pandemic, so health related topics are interesting reads per se. Plus, I live in a tropical country (Singapore) where the preponderance of mosquitoes is definitely a problem. Thankfully, Singapore takes the threat from mosquitoes very seriously & is ruthlessly efficient in combating them! Finally, around ten years back, when I had just moved to Singapore from London, I had to rush back to Bombay as my mother had contracted Malaria and was hospitalised. This is how The Mosquito by Winegard arrived on my reading radar screen.  

Keeping the COVID 19 virus aside (this is a rare global pandemic event), mosquitoes are by far the single largest animal / insect group that's deadliest to humans. They have been occupying the pole position as the cause of human deaths (not counting chronic diseases like cardiac arrests and strokes etc) year after year; followed sadly by humans themselves. For instance, Malaria, transmitted via mosquitoes, is one of the leading causes of child mortality accounting for around 10% of child deaths. Geographically, Africa bears the brunt of the impact of most of the diseases transmitted via mosquitoes but has also made the most progress as well. 

Chapter 1 - Toxic Twins is an excellent chapter to read. If you have little time, I suggest just read this chapter. The chapter tells you everything in a nutshell about this deadly creature. As a start, mosquitoes are the root cause of Malaria but also Dengue, Yellow Fever, Chikungunya, Zika, West Nile etc. By now you should get the drift that this is a serious topic that you should know a bit more about. 

Next, this is a creature that is wired to survive so forget about quick fixes here. Scientists claim that the mosquito has been around for around 190 million years or so; humans less than a million just to set the context. Clearly they, 'the mosquitoes', know how to live, prosper and navigate on Earth. This is also a creature that has perfected her art of attacking humans (yes 'her' because the female species is the deadly one). The link below, is a short documentary that the author recommends to watch. In just over 3 mins, this video will demonstrate, just how utterly sophisticated the  mosquito is. After reading that chapter & watching this video you will be convinced this is a very deadly, sophisticated killing machine that has honed its skills over centuries and claimed many lives in the process. 

"How Mosquitoes Use Six Needles to Suck Your Blood | Deep Look"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rD8SmacBUcU

Winegard says mosquitoes have killed around half of humanity since inception in various ways so we must pay respect to this creature. [Note this is his estimate not mine]. However, I have cross-checked this claim and Nature, corroborates this view via their article Portrait of a SerialKiller.  https://www.nature.com/articles/news021001-6

Given its deadly impact, it would interesting to list a few prominent people that have been afflicted with disease or died because of the mosquito. These include Alexander the Great (one potential cause of death Malaria), Julius Caesar (contracted Malaria), Christopher Columbus, Oliver Cromwell, Charles V, Vasco De Gama, Byron, Lincoln and Kennedy just to name a few. [Note: given that Malaria's modern scientific diagnosis and attribution to mosquitoes as a carrier vector is only very recent, thanks to work of Ronald Ross in the late 1800s, historians have to triangulate people's affliction to Malaria and other diseases through anecdotal evidence].   

For many years before Ronald Ross, the world was unable to link mosquitoes to malaria and the causes for the fevers, chills and deaths were attributed to bad air, miasma. But not all were searching in the wrong places. 

Winegard states that the Indian physician Sushruta as early as in the 6 C BCE was not only linking water as a key cause to the spread of malaria but also mosquitoes. In his detailed compendium, he singled out five mosquito species & their bites as deadly causes for fevers, chills, vomiting, diarrhoea, shivering etc. Sushruta was right about his research and observations but sadly as Winegard writes "Dr. Sushruta's astute reasoning and keen observations went unheeded for millennia".  

Its not that humans have not fought back against the mosquito. They have; through the slow process of evolution as a start. People with sickle cell traits possess a degree of immunity to certain strains of malaria and its not surprising that African Americans and Africans suffer from this sickle cell mutation which confers a degree of immunity to the malarial parasite.  Then came quinine that comes from the bark of the Cinchona tree. It's tremendously bitter and hence it's mixed with other drinks to mask its bitterness. The prevalence of Gin & Tonic especially with British officers combating Malaria in India is attributed to this reason. The importance of quinine was also felt in the American Cvil War when Northern troops had a steady supply of quinine compared to the Southern armies.  

As the scientific age dawned, more measures were taken to combat the menace especially after the work of Ronald Ross and Robert Koch. Mosquito nets, DDT, vaccines etc all played a role and started making an impact in controlling the spread of mosquitoes. But the diseases carried by the mosquitos have also fought back. They have mutated, evolved and become drug resistant making it an ongoing battle between us and them. Most notable in this regard, is Zika which made its re-appearance in a more potent form and in locations that were not endemic to Zika in the past including places like Brazil and Singapore. 

Climate Change is also a key accelerator for the spread of these diseases. Mosquitoes live in warmer climates so areas that are cooler were spared from this deadly killer. But now, Mosquitoes and Malaria are being found in temperate highlands as well as temperatures have begun to rise. Further, as forests are cleared and humans occupy these space, the natural habitat of mosquitoes is being disrupted causing them to infect more people that invade their homes.    

The book also chronicles the impact mosquitoes and their diseases on key global events; perhaps in a detail more than I expected and enjoyed. The author argues that mosquitoes have played decisive roles in battles and military engagements in the past as armies have been defeated through the spread of diseases like Malaria. For the author, the mosquito has played a pivotal role across all major events and has actively shaped the arc of history. To me, whilst the impact of disease on historical events cannot be underplayed they are rarely the sole cause of how things turned out the way they did. An allied book on this concept to read is Guns, Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond. 

Overall it's an informative book that provides the reader with a very unique perspective. It is also a topic which has not been written extensively about so when a book is dedicated to this creature it becomes a worthy read in my view. My gripe with the book is a lot of emphasis and details went into the historical events stretching back to the Greeks and ending in modern times. I would have liked to have balanced the historical impact with more scientific inputs & knowledge around mosquitoes and the diseases they carry. 

https://ourworldindata.org/malaria [useful data on malaria via graphs]

 

https://www.amazon.com/Mosquito-Human-History-Deadliest-Predator/dp/1524743410

The Ends of the World

The Ends of the World by Peter Brannen is a book about mass extinctions that have occured in our Earth's history. The book was published by One World Publications in 2017. Peter is an award winning journalist who resides in Boston and has published articles in the New York Times, Atlantic, Washington Post and the Guardian to name a few. 

Before I would get into the review of the book, it would be good to distinguish between Mass Extinctions and Evolution. Evolution is what we associate with Darwin & Alfred Wallace and the often quoted expression 'survival of the fittest'. This is a slow, evolutionary process whereby species evolve, change and some go extinct over time. 

That comes to the point of extinction then. A sobering fact, according to the National Geographic more than 99% of all organisms that have ever lived on planet Earth are extinct. Whilst evolution and the changing ecology have slowly contributed towards species going extinct, there have been sporadic events in the history of the Earth where c. 75% to 90% of all species on Earth have gone extinct in a relatively short time span (short from a geological perspective). That is what is referred to as Mass Extinctions which is the subject of Peter Brannen's book. 

The book is not an easy read for those like myself who are not familiar with geological terms and events. So take your time and do some additional reading / research to supplement the book. Why? Because understanding time, periods, eras, rocks and geology is one the best ways to understand the history of the Earth especially as we shall look back into time. If the book drags in a few sections, persist or even re-read a chapter or two. It will be a very enlightening and enriching experience at the end. 

Firstly, time periods. Humans who read and explore history like to talk in terms of years, centuries or millennia. To appreciate these events we need to completely rescale our definition of time. All of human history is around 150,000 - 200,000 years at maximum (kindly discount some nation creating myths...) but that is considered extremely recent from a geological perspective. Scientists estimate the age of the Earth to be 4.5 billions years old, yes it has celebrated many birthdays! And for around 90% of that time, the planet has been desolate wasteland, quiet and devoid of any life. So one does need to recalibrate their definition of time and history when we look at Mass Extinction Events. 

Since the birth of the Earth, we fast forward many billions of years and come to one of the most defining moments for the planet. Around 540 million years ago (yes that far back), we had a mega event called the Cambrian Explosion. An explosion of life form on the planet. An incredible amount of diverse life-forms came into being. The seas and not land is where all this new life form activity was taking place, land continued to remained barren for a while. This was driven by falling CO2 levels in the sea and rising oxygen levels in the sea which promoted diverse life forms. All the landmass was concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere which is different to today and the Northern Hemisphere was largely water. 

Since the Cambrian, the Earth has witnessed five Mass Extinction Events. What is common to these events is the role of CO2 and the climate. When the CO2 balance alters, the climate changes violently, oxygen levels drop in the atmosphere & oceans and life-form takes a massive hit. Most of the events are caused due to earthly events and less due to extra terrestrial factors like radiation, asteroids etc. The Earth ultimately heals and new set of life forms emerge and come to dominate the Earth. Minnows of the previous eras become masters of the new. Its also rare that there is one single event that is the cause of Mass Extinction. It tends to be a chain of events that operate like a negative spiral / loop. In some cases its just a coincidence of bad luck events. The book reminds us of this well, via a coin toss analogy. The Earth is old; millions of years old. If you toss a coin many millions of times, there could be a day when a 100 tosses all come up tails. When that happens we have such events! 

The first was the End Ordovician Event which occured around 445 million years ago and would be the second worst by impact. All life-forms were in the sea so the event was impacted conditions in the seas. And the seas were dominated by invertebrates (multi cellular, some with eyes, segmented body parts) rather than vertebrates (fish) that we currently associate with sea & ocean life. What brought about this event was a change in the carbon - silicate cycle caused by volcanic rocks pushing upwards, weathering of rock, reduction in CO2 levels etc. That reduced temperatures and continental ice sheets began to form. Water that rained over land (helped by a massive single landmass in the Southern Hemisphere) became ice and did not find its way back into the sea and sea levels dropped. As most of life form existed in shallow seas, there was no where to go as sea levels kept falling.

After 5 million years the planet began to recover. Peter then steps up to his next chapter the Late Devonian Mass Extinction that took place around 374-359 million years ago. Unlike the other mass extinctions, this played out over a long duration of 20-30 million years. This was also the period when life form (plants) began to grow on land. And with this, caused a change in the earth's climate (more a change in the composition of oceans) that led to the second mass extinction. Plants and trees also suck a considerable amount of CO2 which again impacts the climate. Those that survived this event had one essential skill, they could make the move from shallow waters to land. This comes through possessing primitive breathing apparatus commonly called 'lungs' and primitive appendages called legs .

That brings us to the end Permian Mass Extinction around 250 million years ago. The Permian is the time when the Earth is more recognisable in form to us. Trees grew abundantly, animals were able to make a move onto land. Continents fused to form a giant continent called Pangea.  

There are two critical events in Earth's history (nothing to do with humans) (a) the great Cambrian Explosion and (b) the End Permian Mass Extinction where more than 85% of life went extinct - so this was the Big One!! The prime cause was too much CO2 & other GHG's pumped into the atmosphere. Likely reason - Siberian Traps, Continental Flood Basalts. The amount of lava rock ejected would have covered the entire USA with half a mile deep of lava. Temperatures shot up. With such intense heat, heat differentials across the Earth dropped and water circulation patterns in the Oceans stopped. With high CO2 levels, acid rain caused intense rock weathering that amplified ocean anoxia losing their store of oxygen. With that came the deaths of many species. 

Around 200 million years ago, it was devastation time once again with end Triassic Mass Extinction. This was a time that was dominated by the ancestors of modern day crocodiles. And they suffered at the end of the Triassic. Again the main cause of this event - high CO2 levels in the atmosphere, volcanic activity, continental plate movements (split of the mega continent Pangea) and ocean anoxification. It seems like a bad story that keeps repeating but spaced by millions of years. 

Then comes the most interesting chapter of the book. The end Cretaceous period that occurred around 66 million years ago. This is the most interesting event to read about. Thanks to Jurassic Park, we have all become familiar and mesmerised with the world of dinosaurs. These magnificent and fascinating reptiles ruled the Earth for millions of years! And the theory holds they vanished very suddenly. This is one extinction event that was triggered externally - an asteroid impact. The impact of this was quick & sudden and devastation immediate. Additional theories link the massive impact of the asteroid to immense earthquakes (11 on the Richter Scale!) which then triggered massive volcanic activity. The Deccan Traps were already spewing volcanic matter and this was the smoking gun. The Deccan Traps went into over drive thereafter upsetting the entire ecology of the world. The book describes all this is great detail. The end Cretaceous is one of the most highly researched geological events and for good reason. 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/208/4448/1095
This is one of the most celebrated research papers published in Science in geology; that outlined the asteroid theory as the prime cause for the extinction of dinosaurs. Walter Alvarez was the lead geologist and worked with his father Luis Alvarez (Nobel laureate in Physics) on this paper. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOFq11f3wAI
National Geographic Documentary on the extinction of dinosaurs, a good one to watch.

As dinosaurs died, the minnows of the Cretaceous period mammals began to dominate life on Earth.   

Since then the Earth has periodically been faced with an adverse climate including ice ages. But the effects have not been as devastating as the five events above. A lot of people have been talking about the sixth extinction as on on going event, the era that we are in. As humans have come to dominate the planet, the industrial revolution in particular has been injecting large amounts of CO2 and other GHG into the atmosphere. From reading the above events, we know by now what happens when the CO2 concentrations rise, the climate becomes hostile! 

This book was not an easy read. It talks about life on planet Earth a long long way back in time. But its an interesting read if you persist and it will definitely enhance your knowledge about the climate, ecology, CO2 cycles and Mass Extinction Events.  

https://www.amazon.com/Ends-World-Apocalypses-Understand-Extinctions/dp/0062364804

The Uninhabitable Earth - Life After Warming

The Uninhabitable Earth is a book by David Wallace-Wells and was published Tim Duggan Books (Random House) in 2019/2020 (#1 New York Times best seller). David is a journalist by profession and is a columnist and deputy editor of the New York magazine. This is the second book I have reviewed on Climate Change, the first being written by Bill Gates. The two books are remarkably different in content and approach with Gates being solution oriented and more data driven. That I am not surprised, as all his life Gates has focussed on problem solving and has valued a data centric approach.  

The question arises is how is The Uninhabitable Earth different and what's my honest take on the book. For starters, this book is unlikely to provide the reader with any specific carbon reducing / altering strategies. This is not what the reader should expect. I shall briefly state here that green house gas emissions (chiefly carbon), are the prime drivers of climate change and this is what leaders, environmentalists, business chiefs, and all of us should be concerned about.   

The book has been split into four key chapters. I recommend reading this book largely because of chapter II, Elements of Chaos. This is the key chapter of the book as it will provide an excellent perspective on the issues of Climate Change. More importantly, it will expose the reader to a concept of feedback loops and inter dependency that will demonstrate the catastrophic impacts of a warming planet which is beyond just rising average temperatures. 

Elements of Chaos starts with the impact of heat on humans which is a natural extension of a warming planet. As temperatures rise across the world, living conditions will become harsher in most regions. Yet, the impact of a warmer planet is more than the impact of warmer temperatures on humans. Plants and crops are impacted, with yields dropping and in some cases regions becoming inhospitable to certain plant species entirely. There is also the risk of rising sea levels and its impact on coastal regions, where a large percentage of the world's population resides. Continuing with water, as climate and precipitation patterns change, it will impact the availability of fresh drinking water and cause a drop in the oxygen levels in oceans (impacting marine life). There is also the wide spread impact of a drying planet - wild fires - which hits prosperous regions like Australia and California with increasing intensity year on year. 

As we are still in the midst of the COVID 19 pandemic, the impact on the spread of pathogens and plagues is vital. A warming / altering climate with expose humans to different pathogens. Some of these pathogens have been buried deep inside the Arctic Permafrost. As this Permafrost melts, pathogens will surface. An excellent read on this is 'The Zombie Diseases of Climate Change' published by the Atlantic in Nov. 2017. Besides just the melting of the Permafrost, a warming climate will alter the natural habitat of mosquitoes (a deadly enemy of human kind). [I shall write a separate book review on the Mosquito by Timothy Winegard - a very interesting read indeed]. As food scarcity increases, more deforestation takes place especially in poorer countries which results in further upsetting the ecology and promotes the spread of newer pathogens. Recent outbreaks of Ebola and Zika come to mind immediately. 

'Climate Conflict' is a term we need to become increasingly more familiar with. Yemen is a good case in point. For many of us, we would view the civil war in Yemen as an ideological war or  proxy war between Saudi and Iran. But its noteworthy to point out around 40% of Yemen's population has experienced the effects of a 30 year drought. That number climbs to c. 60% for Afghanistan and settles at around 30% for Somalia (ISciences 2018). When you couple these statistics with the fact that c. 80% of Somalians are engaged in farming and agriculture you immediately understand the challenges people in these countries face.  Now you add weak / non existent political systems, burgeoning populations (Somalia 6.07 births / woman in 2018; Sudan is 4.41 and Yemen is 3.79), severe water shortages and decreasing agricultural yields, its not hard to determine why conflict occurs there and why these regions have become hot spot recruiting grounds for terror groups. I have shared two good links on Yemen & the water crisis. 

https://geographical.co.uk/places/cities/item/753-will-yemen-run-out-of-water

https://science.time.com/2010/12/14/what-if-yemen-is-first-country-to-run-out-of-water/#:~:text=In%20Sana'a%2C%20which%20could,lot%20of%20water%20to%20grow.  

For a good visual, look at the two graphs below. Monthly temperatures of Somalia from 1901-1930 and a second one from 1991 - 2020 (World Bank Data). The graphs are self explanatory and show a steepening of average temperatures for Somalia which has happened over a span of a generation or two. Do remember, that even small sustained changes in temperature has a massive impact on humans. 

There are also wide spread economic impacts on both the developed and developing world we need to consider from a climate that is rapidly altering. For instance, coastal cities will definitely be impacted from rising sea levels. Many of the world's richest and poorest live around the coast. For the poor, it could mean accelerated migration inwards which causes societal disruptions. For the rich it could be mean precipitous drops in property values, higher costs to combat floods & rising sea levels and rising insurance premiums.

Returning to the other chapters of the book, I did not enjoy reading Chapter III - The Climate Kaleidoscope and Chapter IV The Anthropic Principle. Discussions around political systems, haves v/s have nots, role of capitalism, technology etc are important but in my view were not well described in these chapters. We all know the issue of Climate Change is a prickly one. Long term solutions may disenfranchise a small minority. But that small minority could be vocal and could cost politicians electoral votes. Additionally, there are large corporate and economic interests, problems of a free rider society and discussions of carbon emissions on a per capita basis v/s absolute emissions per country . These are complex topics and deserve books in their own right. This coupled with the absence of concrete solutions are what disengaged me from Chapters III and IV.  

To me the key takeaways from the book are well described just via Chapter II. In a succinct but systematic manner, the author has laid out the issues that arise from a warming planet for the reader. One should note that each of the sub-chapters of Chapter II has books, journals and research devoted as they are complex topics on a standalone basis. But the overarching importance is around feedback loops and negative spirals that can take place and that makes it a compelling read for any person that wishes to get a good grasp of the challenges we face on this front.

The book is available in many book stores and on Amazon. I got mine delivered via Amazon.

https://www.amazon.com/Uninhabitable-Earth-Life-After-Warming/dp/0525576703

How To Avoid A Climate Disaster

 

How To Avoid A Climate Disaster is the latest book by Bill Gates. The book was published recently in 2021 by Penguin Random House and as the title suggests, the book is about Climate Change and ways to tackle this problem. The book is dedicated to scientists, innovators and activists who are the leading the charge on Climate Change. The author, Bill Gates needs no introductions here, as he is one of the finest and smartest innovators and entrepreneurs the world has ever known. 

Netflix has a documentary series on Bill Gates, Inside Bill’s Brain : Decoding Bill Gates. I enjoyed this documentary as much which is in three parts and gives excellent insights into the person we know as founder of Microsoft. Its a three part documentary series, with the last part devoted to his work on Climate Change so watch it if you have a subscription to Netflix. 

As Climate Change has become a front and center issue that is impacting the world and mankind, I have taken the liberty to capitalise the words ‘Climate Change’ in this review. 

The book provides a very succinct and impactful way for most people to understand and appreciate this problem of ‘Climate Change’. Bill’s book also demonstrates how complex this problem is and highlights that multiple approaches are needed to tackle the issue of Climate Change and carbon emissions. I would say whilst I have more than a rudimentary understanding of the energy industry, fossil fuels, carbon emissions and Climate Change, I found the book useful and very well organised. 

To set the stage, Bill uses a binary concept. Binary concepts I guess come naturally to people in the world of technology. The binary here is 51 Billion and Zero. 51 Billion Tons are the annual emission of Greenhouse gases and zero is the target for mankind to ensure we can preserve planet Earth. This book talks about the path from 51 billion to zero and the challenges that come along the way. 

The fossil fuel industry is all pervasive and carbon emission has been a by-product of the steep development of mankind since the advent of the industrial revolution. In today’s world, fossil fuels have been badly maligned and maybe for some good reasons. But for people reading this review, they need to bear in mind that this explosive growth in human lifestyle, comfort and the uplifting of billions of people out of abject poverty has been a direct consequence of man’s ability to harness the energy from below the earth’s surface. 

However, we are now at a very clear cross road in human development. Continued emission of carbon will endanger the planet. I am not climate scientist and neither is Bill (he states that clearly in his book) but the overwhelming view of the scientific community is that Climate Change and carbon emissions are directly linked and we are on a non - sustainable path. Getting to zero and within a few decades is imperative and this is the core of the book. 

Carbon is being emitted all around us. At times, we are consciously aware when carbon is being emitted but in most cases, we are completely oblivious to this. To set the stage, define the problem and establish clear thought provoking buckets in the mind of the reader, the book has classified five areas that constitute key carbon emission clusters. A chapter has been dedicated to each of these namely (i) generation of electricity (ii) manufacturing of goods especially heavy industry (iii) agriculture (iv) mobility and transportation (v) heating and cooling of homes, offices and other buildings. 

Once the book has identified the key determinants of carbon emission, it focusses on potential solutions. I wont get into the specifics as it would be better to get that by reading the book. Some of the key conclusions are; its not going to be a single solution that will get us to zero. We have to tackle this problem from all angles with multiple minds and inter disciplinary best practices. This I feel is a very enlightened view to solving this problem. 

I have seen people suggesting ideas that seem to focus on a ‘home run’ approach. Unfortunately, the energy industry is not the technology industry where a ‘killer app’ that solves all problems, a one stop shop solution will just not work. For example, the future power generation grid needs to involve methods that don't generate carbon like solar but also involve carbon capture techniques for those that do emit carbon. Similarly, solutions need to encompass both centralised as well as decentralised power generation capability. And when it comes to power, Bill Gates has made the case for nuclear generation, which is a very controversial topic and elicits many polarised views from all quarters but the arguments made for it make it a worthy read. 

The book has also devoted chapters to adaptation strategies around a warmer world with a more severe climate and the importance of government regulation, involvement and encouragement. The role of governments (Federal, State, Local and City) cannot be deemphasised when it comes to tackling a monstrous problem like Climate Change. 

Can we get to zero is the big question? Is that possible? Can we be optimistic about it and in what time frame and what investment is needed to get there? The book does address each of these questions. Finally the book ends with a chapter on Covid and what are the learnings from Covid that can be transplanted when it comes to Climate Change. There are interesting parallels and lessons although on the surface it looks like there is not much in common between these two problems. 

Bill Gates has made a phenomenal impact on all our lives. Microsoft has become synonymous with technology and computers and has altered our lives permanently. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is a path breaker in the world of philanthropy. So when a book is written by Bill Gates on a existential issue like Climate Change, I decided to read it. This is a good book no doubt. Its succinct, solution oriented and pragmatic. It also dispels a lot of myths and preconceived notions around Climate Change and gives the reader a more analytical and fact based framework to view the problem of Climate Change. Go ahead and read it! 

https://www.amazon.sg/How-Avoid-Climate-Disaster-Breakthroughs/dp/0385546130/ref=asc_df_0385546130/?tag=googleshoppin-22&linkCode=df0&hvadid=404206611278&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=9350443596550045729&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9062526&hvtargid=pla-918137739254&psc=1