The China Pakistan Axis - By Andrew Small

The China Pakistan Axis is a book written by Andrew Small on Asia's New Geopolitics Canvas. The China Pakistan relationship is a less talked about geopolitical alliance and an even lesser understood or appreciated one despite the vast dimensions it constitutes. 

The author, Andrew Small is a fellow at the German Marshall Fund and is an expert on China and South Asia. He has contributed articles for the New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy and has also published the above mentioned book. This book was first published in 2015 by C. Hurst & Co. and there is an updated edition of this book which I recommend as a must read particularly for those keen on understanding the regional dynamics in South Asia. 

As the title suggests, this book details the China Pakistan relationship which is a pivotal relationship for both China and Pakistan. However, what the two parties bring to the table in the form of an alliance is extremely diverse and hence the need for a deeper understanding of this relationship. Is this an alliance based on natural factors or shared values that bring nations together? Unlikely is the answer honestly. 

Pakistan as a nation has looked 'West' in terms of inspiration and built relationships with the Western Powers (US notably) and then the Islamic States after its formation. The basis for its relationship with China is neither cultural nor political as Pakistan has flirted with civilian democracy and army led dictatorships, neither of which China adopted since the end of its own civil war. The two countries don't share a common language or customs or religious orientations but they do share a geographical boundary in one of the most challenging and contestable regions of the world. But sharing a geographical boundary could not have brought these two disparate nations together and this is what the book attempts to elucidate. 

As far as countries go, the gap between China and Pakistan is enormous. China is front and center of every discussion across economy, trade, investment, military might, political system and ideology. It is a powerful country that keeps growing and many would argue that it is the only power that can challenge the United States today. Pakistan on the other hand has seen its economy crater, its position in the global order significantly weakened and has faced periodic isolation from the global community. 

The roles have clearly reversed since the 70s. It was infact Pakistan that played a critical role in brokering talks between the US and China at the height of the Cold War and brought China into the anti Soviet Pro US camp. Whilst China was isolated from the global community and had few and far relations, its relationship with Pakistan that took shape in the 60s was intact and trusted. Since then China has grown by leaps and bounds whereas Pakistan has resorted to numerous IMF bailouts to stay afloat. 

So what brought about this "all weather relationship"?

Pivotal moments in this relationship have been forged around wars with India starting with the Sino Indian war in 1962 and the subsequent three wars of Pakistan (65,71 and 99 Kargill). These events provided the platform for the growing closeness between the two countries especially as China became a huge arms supplier to Pakistan during these wars. 

But there have also been limitations on this front and across the four conflicts there was never a co-ordinated two front war including when things turned extremely dire for Pakistan in 1971 and when the US would have supported a two front war with India. 

Clearly 'India' has been the key cementing rationale for the China Pakistan Axis. This was exacerbated by 'geography' as the three nations meet in the in-hospitable region of the Himalayas where a clearly defined boundary is hard to establish. Whilst India has border issues with both China and Pakistan, China and Pakistan have swapped land and have not much friction in the Himalayan region. 

The nuclear bomb was another catalyst for the growing relationship between the two and a whole chapter is dedicated to this critical aspect in the book. Pakistan desperately needed the bomb after India's spectacular military win in 71 and subsequent nuclear detonations. Given Pakistan's lack of 'strategic depth' and a huge military imbalance with India, the nuclear bomb for Pakistan would become the key swing factor. The development of the bomb, the missile systems, the notorious AQ Khan network, the role of the Chinese and Pakistani armies and the ISI are all chronicled in this chapter as the 'bomb' assumed mission critical status in Pakistan.  In later years, as the US India civilian nuclear deal was approved, the China - Pakistan co-operation on this front was further enhanced and China is now a key technology supplier for civilian nuclear plants to Pakistan.  

September 11, 2001 and war on terror brought a new dimension to this relationship. But before we jump to this period, its important to consider the impact of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. As the Soviet Union marched into Afghanistan, the geopolitical balance of the region shifted. That Pakistan and US closely collaborated with the 'Mujahideen' fighters is well known. But China was also a critical ally in this struggle. China supplied a number of weapons and diplomatically it was more convenient for the US if the 'Mujahideen fighters' had Chinese weapons than US weapons. For China, the presence of Soviet troops on its western boarders was off settling as the Sino Soviet friendship of the 50s had given way to a border conflict by the 70s and China feared encirclement by the Soviets. China's involvement in Afghanistan was 'brokered' via the Pakistani establishment including the ISI and in close co-operation with the US. 

The war on terror brought many nations to side with the US and China was no exception. Pakistan on the other hand was given a firm alternative by the US to make a choice - 'us or them'. For the region, this again caused a major imbalance as a strong US & NATO military presence was developing on China's western border. Also, China's 'all weather' friend was asked to comply with US' requests at gun point leaving little room for consulting with China. The Pakistani establishment, the ISI and its military was also deeply divided as many sided with the Taliban and Islamic Fundamentalists but the threat from the US was too strong for Pakistan to oppose it as a nation. 

For China there was an added dimension that made the 'War on Terror' a tight balancing act. The Xinjiang region is front and center of this dilemma. Xinjiang is China's western most province, accounts for around 1/5 or 1/6 of its landmass and is sparsely populated with a chequered history with Beijing. Geographically it borders more than 5 countries including Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. Control of Xinjiang is vital for China but the population of Xinjiang is largely Islamic and has its own dreams and aspirations and at times divorced from Beijing. The Ugyhurs from Xinjiang have allied with various Islamic fundamentalists to seek a separate nation and break Xinjiang away from China creating a huge issue for China in this province which is a key buffer zone for Beijing. 

It therefore would appear that Chinese and US interests were aligned in trying to curb Islamic militancy and terrorism that was rooted in Pakistan and Afghanistan. But Islamic militancy directed at regions other than Xinjiang could be strategically vital for China which called for a balancing act. For Pakistan, this became a significantly challenging position as it now had to ally with the US to curb Islamic militancy yet manage parts of its establishment that had deep sympathies to the Islamic cause. Pakistan also had to act on the Xinjiang militants that secured training and inspiration in Pakistan given its own alliance with China but this resulted in militants attacking Pakistan in retaliation.  These complicated issues and some of the key unsettling events are well documented by Andrew in his book. 

A few chapters in the book have been devoted to trade, investments, economics and infrastructure. Whilst the China Pakistan relationship did not develop from trade and commerce, a large component of the current relationship does swivel around this aspect. However, the challenges for China have been enormous in this regard as the book recounts. The speed and consistency with which China was able to develop economically and establish world class infrastructure was not mirrored by Pakistan. 

Pakistan was supposed to be a key showcase country for the Belt and Road Initiative. The CPEC corridor, the Karokaram highway, Gwadar Port etc (part economic, part military) were all expected to deliver world class projects to the region but have consistently undelivered. Regular government changes in Pakistan including from military to civilian have complicated many of these projects. In addition, Islamic militants have targetted these projects and Chinese workers when they wanted to send strong messages to the Pakistani government. Then there was the Indian dimension which China could not ignore. When it came to trade and investment, India is a way better story than Pakistan and deserved greater focus from China which has alarmed Pakistan from time to time. 

The chapter "Tea With The Taliban" makes interesting reading. Afghanistan plays a pivotal role where the US, NATO, Russia, Pakistan and the Islamic world intersected, often in brutal conflict. China's historical position especially before the advent of Xi Jinping was to eschew all international conflict zones and focus on its economy and trading ties. This has now changed and its role in Afghanistan has grown over time. Again with the help of Pakistan, it has tried to navigate the post 9-11 landscape in Afghanistan including dealing with the Taliban whilst they were in exile in Pakistan and their subsequent come back. China has agreed to deploy capital into Afghanistan, work with the US to stabilise the country yet ensured that US presence had an expiry date. China is not comfortable with an unstable Afghanistan that may host Uyghur militants that would attack China but it also does not want a hardened US presence on its Western borders. Afghanistan has ensured that China's diplomatic corps have been extremely active but so has its security and defence personnel in this region again in close co-operation with the Pakistani state and the ISI.  

The 2020 edition of the book has the additional chapter on CPEC. As I had mentioned earlier, this is a critical project for both countries. A 'trade' corridor is immensely strategic to both China and Pakistan and for China in particular, it could obviate some reliance on the Straits of Malacca - "the Malacca dilemma". CPEC also gives China access to the Indian ocean, something its navy would covet. However, CPEC has been delayed, recast, restructured and reoriented a number of times. Statements and hype around CPEC have not followed through and whilst investment numbers on paper seem enormous, the reality on the ground is very different. China was hoping to use CPEC as a show case project for its wider BRI initiative but instead CPEC has turned out to emblematic for what ails a lot of the BRI projects. Above the ground issues around delays, permits, corruption, incompetence and the challenges around changes in governments trump the size and perceived benefits of these massive infrastructure projects. 

This book covers a lot of ground on this strategic and vital geopolitical axis in Asia, a relationship that has stood a considerable test of time and gone beyond political ideologies. China has been a critical saviour for Pakistan across its many critical moments and is expected to remain its "all weather friend" in the future. The Pakistanis know that China remains its last resort and the ultimate friend; China is what stands between it becoming a global pariah nation versus one that still manages a seat with other countries. As China asserts itself in the seas and oceans surrounding it, ups the ante on Taiwan, combats the US across many facets and seeks to dominate the Asia Pacific region, one must not forget this alliance. This has been China's one and truly long lasting alliance and understanding it may reveal a lot of how China will deal with countries in the region and beyond.