Tuesday, February 1, 2022

The Pivot by Kurt M. Campbell - 8 Lessons - Part A (First Four)

Instead of reviewing Kurt Cambell's entire book Pivot (The Future Of American Statecraft in Asia), I have selected the most important and interesting chapter in his book to share his thoughts on eight defining and influential themes that have underscored America's engagement with Asia. 

Kurt Cambell served as Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the Department of State from 2009 to 2013 in the Obama administration. The pivot to Asia was the seminal foreign policy move of the Obama administration which continues till today. The 21 century is clearly the Pacific century and America's engagement with Asia remains the vital piece of architecture for the most important region in the world. 

Whilst the book has many chapters devoted to the Pivot to Asia, Chapter 3 was the most enlightening one for me. Kurt has laid out in an absolutely brilliant manner, the eight themes that underpin America's engagement with Asia. For any watcher of this great game that is unfolding in Asia, understanding and appreciating these eight points are fundamental. I am grateful that Kurt has been able to distill these vital points in a clear and succinct manner and is a testament to his vast experience and knowledge of Asia and diplomacy. 

I will share these eight principles in the order in which they appear in Kurt's book. Without a doubt reading these eight principles gave me an excellent understanding of how America has shaped and will shape its engagement with Asia. These principles are excellent because they provide the bookends to understand America's actions in Asia. What's notable is whilst each principal in isolation might have ebbed and flowed in terms of importance over the past decades, there has been a high degree of consistency across various administrations when it has come to these eight defining features. 

Here are the first four. I hope you enjoy reading these four as much as I did reading them and then distilling them in this note. 

Tyranny of Distance 

For long the US has prided on being a two ocean power namely an Atlantic and Pacific power. However, the depth of its engagement across these two water bodies has been remarkably different. Whist the Atlantic separates the eastern seaboard of the US and continental Europe, the two landmasses are bound by personal, cultural and historic ties. It also helps that geographically Europe is much closer to the US than Asia. Asia is infact twice as far as Europe and even with the comforts of modern travel, the distance between the US and Asia is vast resulting in reduced interactions. The US has attempted to bridge this gap through forward bases like Hawaii & Guam and diplomatic relations with Fiji & Samoa (all landmasses dotting the Pacific ocean), yet the distance remains vast. 

The one US president that made a concerted and powerful effort to bridge the gap and project power and diplomacy across the Pacific was Theodore Roosevelt. In a coordinated attempt he ensured a civilian and military delegation to cross the Pacific in a fleet of ships that made calls at Hawaii, Japan, Philippines, China & Korea over a span of two months. This marked a high point in the US' interest in Asia. It is unlikely that such a large outreach will occur again. Tyranny of distance will remain an inalienable phenomenon of the US' engagement with Asia.  

This gives rise to the second critical issue. 

Stereotypes, Mockery and Underestimation 

Whether its mainstream media, movies, informal conversations or people in positions of high power; there has been a continued stereotyping of Asian people, their abilities, character and threat perceptions. On one hand there has been the "lure of the orient" where Americans have been captivated by Asia as the land of indulgence, elegance and grace. The myth of Asia being exotic, luxurious - a world of its own. This is in stark contrast to Americans perceptions of Europe, which are more grounded in reality, and where there has always been a greater understanding and affinity between the two peoples. 

Perceptions did not stop just at the exotic, but percolated into a thought process that resulted in Asians being branded as weak, fragile and incompetent. That resulted in Americans being caught off guard with Pearl Harbour, but also later again in Korea and Vietnam. The over riding theme being the confidence and capabilities of the American soldiers versus the lack of the same when it came to an Asian army man. That led to many a humbling defeat in wars and battles in the Pacific and Asian mainland and in many cases overwhelming force and swift rearguard action had to take place to stem initial losses. 

Incredibly the perception of Asians on the American mainland has been around threat and menace. From Chinese labourers being the cause of depressed wages in the 1850s, to bans on Chinese immigration to the internment of Japanese origin but American citizens during WW2. Whilst 120,000 odd Japanese origin American citizens were rounded up being perceived as a threat to the war effort, more than 10 million German American citizens did not face the same issues. Kurt quotes Time & Life Publisher Henry Luce "Americans had to learn to hate the Germans, but hating Japs comes natural". Post war attitudes changed towards the Japanese but they resurfaced in the 80s as Japan rose as an economic super power with a perceived threat to challenge American economic dominance. 

Stereotypical casting of Asians and Asian societies still remains in America and can play a vital role in how Americans and America perceives Asia.   

Trade - Cornerstone of American interest in Asia 

Trade with Asia has been explored right from the founding days of America. The Empress of China left NYC as early as 1784 to commence trade with China. [http://www.wiu.edu/cas/history/wihr/pdfs/wihr-empress-of-china.pdf] and returned back after 15 long months. Whilst America was keen to trade, Asia was reluctant to reciprocate trade outreaches with America and the Europeans; preferring to remain insular and keeping the 'barbarians' away.

In 1833 America was able to persuade the Kingdom of Thailand to commence trading starting a critical process for Asia but made little headway in China, the prime target. Unlike America, Britain though had little patience. As Britain's trade deficit ballooned with China, Britain attempted to offset it with opium imports into China which was fiercely resisted by the Chinese. By the mid 1800s, trade gave way to conflict and China faced the first of the opium wars (1st Opium war ended 1842). With heavy defeats, China opened up to trade, signing what are now known as the the unequal treaties (also commencing the century of humiliation). This meant that China had to open up its ports to foreign powers, notably Britain. 

America preferred trade to war with the Chinese and Treaty of Wanghia (1844) gave the US equal treatment on par with the British when it came to Chinese trade. [https://history.state.gov/milestones/1830-1860/china-1]. With this treaty, trade grew and with that America's interest to protect its trade flow with China. The US pushed to ensure China's sovereignty with a view to ensure continued trade flows between the US and China and prevent European colonisation of China. The flag was following the trade here although America's principal focus being on trade rather than acquisition of Chinese territory. 

But trade followed the flag in the case of Japan in 1854. The exploits of Commodore Perry & the US Navy's show of force in Tokyo bay culminated in the treaty of Kanagawa resulting in the opening up of Japan to trade. Yet another Asian country was now open to trade with America and the Europeans. Japan's trajectory was in stark contrast to the Chinese who continued to remain insular and unaware of the changes surrounding them. [https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/treaty-of-kanagawa-signed-with-japan]

1899 was a pivotal year with the establishment of the Open Door Notes (modern day precursor to the WTO). The US got the other major powers of the day - UK, France, Russia, Germany and Japan to agree to free & open trading, equal trade status for all powers and to eschew territorial ambitions in China. The US wanted via Open Door to promote free trade, lower tariffs and avoid territorial footprint in China. The US wanted equality of treatment when it came to trade & China and likewise further open China to free trade and commerce. Ironically this is also the time the US was implementing immigration bans on the Chinese into America [https://history.state.gov/milestones/1899-1913/hay-and-china]. The was America's alternative proposition to "European Colonialism". 

When war broke out between Russia and Japan, America even became a peace broker and put an end to hostilities in the Western Pacific. The chief aim of America again being preserving trade in the region, something a conflict between two major powers (Russia and Japan) would heavily disrupt. For this, Theodore Roosevelt was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1906. 

The US continued to ensure that trade was prioritised over all other factors in Asia. Trade with Asia was hugely beneficial to the US and the US with diplomatic and military might continued to ensure this would be the case. This was America's policy even as WW1 broke out in Europe. 

Post WW1, there was no change in America's policy towards Asia. However, as America's might grew so did its ability to establish the American order in Asia which prioritised trade. 

The early 1920s saw a series of trade, geopolitical and military agreements being signed known as the "Washington System". The US got all the major European powers & Japan to execute what is known as the Nine Power Treaty (US, Japan, Russia, Britain, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Portugal). This treaty ensured and reaffirmed the sovereignty of China, equal trade opportunity for all the nine countries and promote trade over imperial conquest. What I did observe is that whilst trade with China and Asia was central to this treaty there was no Chinese presence or involvement! 

Unlike Europe, the US was able to secure a treaty in Asia and keep the peace for a few years. Till of course WW2, by which time the entire continent of Asia was engulfed in total & absolute war ending with the unconditional surrender of Japan in 1945. 

Post WW2, the US was integral to the efforts to reconstruct Japan from the ashes. Japan grew spectacularly in the years after WW2 eschewing military ambition for trade, commerce, and technology whilst the US provided the security umbrella. Japan's model became a template for South Korea, HK, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand to follow. A model that focusses on trade, goods, manufacturing, open access, competitive wages, lower trade barriers and minimal military conflict. 

Trade therefore has been emblematic of America's engagement with Asia right from the commencement of the Republic. Whilst America has periodically been dragged into many conflicts in Asia, it has consistently promoted trade in the region. Trade, therefore, becomes critical to any US policy and ambition in the Asia Pacific region.  

Religion and Christianity 

American missionaries saw the vast and untapped potential of Asia's large and burgeoning population as an extraordinary opportunity to spread their faith. With faith having a strong anchor back home in the US, American missionaries set out very early on to spread the faith to Asia. In this regard faith and trade moved alongside although it may be argued that they were not inter-dependent. 

Kurt contrasts the attitudes of America and Britain in this regard and emphasises that America pushed heavily on the spread of the faith unlike Britain. The British East India Company for instance never put faith on top of its agenda when it came to Asia. From Kurt's perspective spread of education was fundamental to the missionaries and an anathema to the East India Company. 

With strict controls on the interactions between Chinese and foreigners in place, it was the missionaries who early on devised creative means to engage with the locals and were the first to learn the Chinese language - through craft and ingenuity. 

The missionaries failed in their efforts to en-masse convert the million of Asians but their impact is felt across countries especially in the field of education and health. 

Kurt highlights the work of two prominent missionaries. (a) John Scudder Sr and his family. The family's work was focussed on India and the Christian Medical College and Hospital at Vellore, India is an example of the work. (b) John Leighton Stuart in China - his work around Yenching University in China and establishing close links between Yenching, Harvard and Princeton. Yenching was closed by Mao but Peking and Tsinghua university have adopted many of Yenching's departments. 

Kurt also highlights the closeness of the missionaries with the US government. John Leighton Stuart became US ambassador to China. John Paton Davies & John Service, both missionaries led the first efforts to engage with Mao and Communist Party. 

The Methodist and Catholic churches continue to focus their efforts on Asia. As religion declines in Europe, the church sees Asia as a 'pivotal' market to further its faith. 

Asia's relationship with the church and missionaries will continue to remain frosty or viewed with suspicion. On the other hand, whilst the American state does not formally and actively propagate religion, missionary activity and their protection will not be entirely abdicated. 

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